Eurasia / Opinion
COMMENT: Competing Trans-Afghan transport routes could split Central Asia
Central Asia is bottled up by an unstable Afghanistan. It would dearly love to open a southern corridor that leads to the huge and lucrative markets of Southeast Asia that could transform the economy of the region.
MACRO ADVISORY: Silk Roads for Gen Z and the fate of the Middle Corridor
Sanctions against Russia and the voluntary boycott of Russian ports and transit routes by major global transport and logistic companies, created the need for alternative routes to carry the growing volume of trade between China and Europe.
MACRO ADVISORY: Uzbekistan is in need of another gear
Uzbekistan has recorded remarkable growth over the past six years. GDP doubled, average incomes have risen three-fold. The president wants to double the economy again, but to do that, it needs to go up another gear: privatisation needs to accelerate.
COMMENT: Georgia goes from sanctions-dodging transit country to Russia’s oil export backdoor into Europe
Georgia has long been suspected of being a major transit country for European sanctioned goods travelling to Russia, but now it appears the trade is flowing in the other direction: Georgia has become a major backdoor into the EU for Russian oil.
Central Asia has become “like a girl whose house is full of suitors”, analyst says
Powers including China, Russia, the US and the EU “all promise something to the bride” in scramble for resources such as critical minerals.
COMMENT: What does the Israel-Iran confrontation mean for Azerbaijan?
Geopolitics in the Caucasus was already unstable before the war between Israel and Iran broke out at the weekend. Now it has become more confused and threatens to destabilise the region further.
MACRO ADVISORY: Mongolia rising, but critically linked to China
Three years ago, Mongolia was broke and facing a possible debt default. It suffered a big drop in the volume and value of copper and coal exports to China during 2020-2021. Now it is doing better, but its fate is tied to China.
HALLIGAN: Georgia on my mind — and China's too
Having long ignored the Caucasus region, China is now showing intense interest in developing Black Sea infrastructure, not least in Georgia. The West is pushing back.
PANNIER: Party in parliament declares itself Uzbekistan's opposition. Something to get excited about?
The country’s registered parties bicker, or pretend to bicker, but they’re all loyal to the president.
COMMENT: Amid shrinking civic space, will the EBRD still uphold its democratic mandate?
As the global Democracy Index recorded a historic low in 2024, institutions tasked with upholding democratic values are under increasing pressure to adapt.
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HALLIGAN: Power struggle in OPEC+ is pulling oil prices down
The oil market has entered choppy waters once again. Crude prices fell by a dramatic 18% in April y/y – the sharpest monthly drop since November 2021 – partly due to a global slowdown, but more due to a power struggle within OPEC+.
Post-war order teetering – rights watchdog
Eurasia “at forefront” of assault on individual freedoms.
COMMENT: Middle Corridor makes progress, but playing second fiddle to the Northern Route
The Middle Corridor linking China to Europe through the South Caucasus and Central Asia has expanded significantly in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but its long-term prospects remain uncertain.
MACRO ADVISORY: Kazakhstan’s high stakes oil gambit
Kazakhstan’s economy is estimated to have grown by more than 5.5% in the first quarter. Growth in February alone topped 7.5% y/y. The reason for the strong growth is the surge in oil production at the giant Tengiz oil field.
Think-tank urges EU to consider 'Big Bang' enlargement and sweeping reforms
European Policy Centre analysts call on the EU to abandon its piecemeal, hesitant approach to enlargement and commit to ‘permachange’: a permanent state of adaptation in response to cascading crises.
Turkey’s foreign policy falling apart on all fronts, writes shadow minister
Ankara took a slap to the chops as Turkic Central Asian states inked an investment-linked deal on relations with Brussels that pointedly included no recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
COMMENT: Embracing “Greater Central Asia” has become a strategic imperative for US
Wider region increasingly seen as arena in which major powers’ interests, such as in sourcing critical minerals, collide and converge.
COMMENT: Azerbaijan redraws its foreign policy map
Azerbaijan has shifted its traditional foreign policy strategy by making inroads into regions far beyond the post-Soviet space, including the Balkans, Middle East, and more recently Sub-Saharan Africa.
COMMENT: South Caucasus offers a potential diplomatic triumph for Trump
The new US administration wants to become the political team that ends the longstanding conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.