Top Ukrainian, US and European officials gathered in Geneva on November 23 to try and find compromises to the 28-point peace plan floated the previous week to end the war in Ukraine, which they see as making major concessions to Russia.

The talks are ongoing, but according to initial reports, Ukraine has dug its heels in on the size of its army and insisted on a 800,000 man cap, up from the 600,000 suggested in the first draft.

However, in a major climb down, it is reported that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Bankova (Ukraine’s equivalent of the Kremlin) is open to conceding control over some territories, although no details were released.

Conceding territory has been a red line for Zelenskiy and the idea is deeply unpopular amongst the population. But the White House and even Europe have long conceded that it is unlikely that Ukraine will eject Russia from its borders completely and some territorial concessions will be necessary to get a ceasefire.

The Geneva talks are only between Ukraine and its Western allies. No Russian representatives were present. Any deal agreed in Geneva will have to be taken to Moscow for more negotiations. However, one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s central demands has been for Bankova to concede at least Moscow’s de facto control over all of the Donbas and the Crimea, as well as parts of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.

From the reports, more progress has been made towards ending the war than at any time since the negotiations kicked off in Riyadh on February 18.

US President Donald Trump has given Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy until the Thanksgiving holidays on November 27 to sign off on the plan, otherwise he can just “keep fighting” and the US will withdraw its intelligence and arms supplies, Trump threatened last week.

Since the plan was leaked, there has been considerable confusion over who authored the plan. Before leaving for Geneva Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed that the US wrote the draft that includes elements drawn from both sides. The original reports say Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, Kirill Dmitriev drew up the terms after a three day meeting in Miami at the end of October and Dmitriev was responsible for the leak.

Witkoff is also attending the Geneva talks. US Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll was also in Geneva for the talks, who has been in charge of supplying Ukraine with weapons under the Biden administration and met Zelenskiy in Kyiv last week. The embattled head of Zelenskiy's office, Andriy Yermak leads Ukraine's delegation. No Russian delegates were present and the revised deal will be presented to the Kremlin shortly.

EU counteroffer

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen laid out the EU position ahead of the Geneva summit: “The initial draft of the 28-point plan includes important elements that will be essential for a just and lasting peace. We believe therefore that the draft is a basis which will require additional work,” she said in a statement before listing the main problems the EU has with the deal.

“We are ready to engage in order to ensure that a future peace is sustainable. We are clear on the principle that borders must not be changed by force. We are also concerned by the proposed limitations on Ukraine’s armed forces, which would leave Ukraine vulnerable to future attack. We reiterate that the implementation of elements relating to the European Union and relating to Nato would need the consent of EU and Nato members respectively,” she said.

According to initial reports from Geneva, the EU has come back with a preliminary counteroffer that includes:

• Ukraine's armed forces will limited to 800,000, not 600,000 men as proposed in the US deal, almost as many men that are under arms now;
• Ukraine conceded that it is open to giving some territory away to Russia, but gave no details;
• Ukraine will regain control over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP) which under the first version was to be shared with Russia;
• Ukraine will obtain "unimpeded passages" along the Dnipro River, and control over the Kinburn Spit;
• Other territorial disputes will be addressed after the ceasefire, which implies Ukraine will not withdraw troops from Donbas for the sake of a truce as demanded by the Kremlin.

The EU leaders met at the weekend on the sidelines of a Group of 20 summit in South Africa and held emergency meetings to thrash out a common position ahead of the meetings scheduled for November 23 in Geneva. Trump told reporters the 28-point plan was a draft and there is room for changes.

"The initial draft of the 28-point plan includes important elements that will be essential for a just and lasting peace," said the leaders of the EU, Germany, France, Britain, Canada, the Netherlands, Spain, Finland, Italy, Japan and Norway. "We believe therefore that the draft is a basis which will require additional work," they said in a statement, Reuters reported.

European governments are in a panic as the situation on the battlefield for Ukraine continues to deteriorate, driven by a worsening manpower shortage and rising desertions, and Brussel’s failure to secure a deal to tap Russia’s $300bn of frozen funds for Reparation Loans to fund the continuation of the war. Russia has also been aggressively targeting Ukraine’s remaining power assets and a third of the country is now under an emergency power regime as the first winter snows arrive. And worst of all, Zelenskiy has been hit by the Energoatom corruption scandal, the worst of his six years in office.

"If Ukraine loses this war and possibly collapses, it will have an impact on European politics as a whole, on the entire European continent. And that is why we are so committed to this issue," Merz said on the sidelines of the G20 summit , reports Reuters. "There is currently an opportunity to end this war, but we are still quite a long way from a good outcome for everyone."

Hard choice

Zelenskiy admitted he is under “enormous pressure” to do a deal. He recorded a video address to the nation on November 21 appearing to prepare the population for some bad news. He said Kyiv faces a very difficult choice: the country has to choose between “keeping its dignity” by accepting a new 28-point peace plan, or it could refuse and “lose a key partner.”

Bankova has been at pains to keep the mercurial Trump on board, but is preparing to accept some very unpalatable demands. In an illustration of what is at stake, the White House got out its stick and threatened to cut Ukraine off from its intelligence and arms supplies if Bankova rejects the proposed plan.

"He'll have to like it, and if he doesn't like it, then you know, they should just keep fighting, I guess," Trump told journalists. "At some point he's going to have to accept something he hasn't accepted."

Trump qualified the Thanksgiving deadline, saying it may be extended if constructive talks got underway.

Ukraine is heavily reliant on the US for arms and intelligence and Europe is not in a position to meaningfully replace either. Trump’s threat was a signal of his determination to force through his plan to stop the war that he has been promising since the first day in office.

The so-called Witkoff-Dmitriev plan, named after its reported authors, US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, Kirill Dmitriev, has been criticised in Europe as being little more than Kremlin wish list, but as bne IntelliNews reported, there are serious new concessions, including a US promise of real Article 5-like security guarantees.

The officials are hoping to draw up an outline agreement that will then be finalised at a meeting between Zelenskiy and Trump, presumably later this week. Zelenskiy welcomed the diplomatic efforts in Geneva, saying that he hoped they would lead to a result.

"The bloodshed must be stopped, and we must ensure that the war is never reignited," he said on X.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said he would speak to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Monday about Ukraine and share the outcome with European and US leaders and allies. Zelenskiy met Erdogan last week as part of a European tour to rally support.