April 16, 2028 has been circled as possibly the most suitable date for Turkey to hold its next parliamentary and presidential elections by Mehmet Ucum, an aide to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

An article by Ucum, entitled “Another look at the snap election debate” was on June 15 published on the op-ed page (AA Analiz) of Turkey’s government-run news service Anadolu Agency.

Despite all current developments in the world and region, the functioning of Turkey’s political system does not face any pressing, extraordinary situation, according to Ucum, who added that trying to occupy the country with a “snap election” agenda would at this time cause serious problems.

Debating the debates

The AA Analiz page observed that Ucum had penned an “analysis” of the early election debates that have recently come to the fore (following the latest events that replaced main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) chair Ozgur Ozel with his predecessor Kemal Kilicdaroglu by court order).

Attempts were once more being made to push issues such as snap elections and “flash” elections on to the agenda, Ucum wrote, adding: “Since the transition to the presidential system, we have seen those who try to push the issue of snap elections at every opportunity. Whenever they try to spark a snap election debate, it always proves fruitless. Despite this, they do not give up. For this reason, it may be appropriate to take another look at the snap election debates.”

Officials gearing to slice off very end of cycle like last time?

Following the local elections held in March, 2019 that came after the June, 2018 national elections, which were the first presidential and parliamentary polls held under the new executive presidential system introduced following the 2017 constitutional referendum, attempts were also made to bring a “snap election” debate on to the agenda, Ucum recalled.

“During those debates, we repeatedly stated that ‘it is unrealistic to expect a snap election’,” he added.

As it turned out, the elections scheduled for June 18, 2023, were brought forward by just a month to May 14, 2023, with holiday and seasonal conditions cited as the sole reason.

In other words, by Ucum’s reasoning, a “snap election” in the true sense and expectation of some did not take place. Although the elections were moved forward by a month for technical reasons, they were held according to the standard cycle in Ucum’s eyes.

Whac-a-mole blues

Despite this experience, following the parliamentary and presidential elections held on May 14 and 28, 2023 (the latter date brought the presidential head-to-head run-off), the “snap election” debate surfaced once again after the March 31, 2024 local elections, Ucum reflected, noting that nothing came of that debate either.

Now, the opposition comes forward attempting yet again [like whac-a-mole?—Ed.] to trigger discussions on an early election, but it is clear that its attempts will not gain traction, the aide also concluded. 

Fixed, but flexible

Both the president and parliament are elected for a fixed five-year term, Ucum added, writing: “However, this period is not a guaranteed fixed period for either institution, but rather a flexible fixed period, because within this timeframe, the parliament or the president can decide to recall for elections.”

If the president makes such a decision during his first term, he forfeits the remainder of his term. If he decides to renew the elections during his second term, he forfeits his remaining time and cannot run for office again.

Unrealistic expectations

If the parliament is to decide for invoking elections, 360 lawmakers (a 3/5 majority) must vote for the decision.

(The current arithmetic in parliament provides the ruling coalition with many alternatives for whenever it might decide to call for a snap poll.)

At this stage, expecting Turkey’s parliament to decide to back a move for elections is unrealistic, according to Ucum.

“Exceptional candidacy”

As is well known, there is no need for a new constitution or a constitutional amendment for President Erdogan to run for office once more, according to Ucum.

The constitution already provides an opportunity for this. This opportunity, which they refer to as “an exceptional candidacy” in the palace, is activated by a decision to renew the elections that can be taken by the parliament a certain period before the general elections scheduled for May 7, 2028.

For example, if the legislature decides to back elections for the final quarter of 2027 or beginning of 2028 with the votes of at least 360 lawmakers, if Erdogan so wishes, he can run for office one last time, according to Ucum.

Erdogan needs Turkey? No, Turkey needs Erdogan

“As we have stated many times before, it is a necessity for the country that President Erdogan serves Turkey for one more term,” Ucum also stated in his article.

“President Erdogan does not need to be president again, but Turkey needs President Erdogan once more,” he reiterated.

Paving the way for a final candidacy in 2028 elections for Erdogan can and should be counted as a necessary condition for parliament to decide on voting for the elections, the aide continued.

“However, under the normal course of events, this matter is not expected to come to the agenda before late 2027. Therefore, it is clear that the time for this issue has not yet arrived,” he also determined.

First Sunday following the 60^th day

It can be foreseen that in the six-month period made up of the final quarter of 2027 and the first quarter of 2028, the issue of calling elections will focus on which specific day the voting will take place on, said Ucum.

One possible date is Sunday, April 16, 2028, he then wrote.

For the general elections to be held on Sunday, April 16, 2028, it would be sufficient for the parliament to decide on framing the election date at an appropriate time, prior to the normal election day of May 7, 2028.

When the parliament agrees to the early election date, Erdogan automatically gains the right to run for the presidency one last time, benefitting from the exceptional candidacy clause in accordance with the current constitution.

If there is no legal change regarding duration one year prior to the general elections to be held in the parliamentary and presidential cycle, the elections are to be held on the first Sunday following the 60th day after the decision to call elections is made, according to the law on elections.

If parliament takes the decision to call the elections on any day between February 9 and February 15, 2028, the election will legally be held on Sunday, April 16, 2028.

“Merely a proposal”

Should parliament make the requisite decision leading to the holding of the general elections on April 16, the date that the referendum on the new presidential system was held in 2017, polling day would carry a powerful symbolic meaning, according to Ucum.

“In many other respects, holding the upcoming general elections on April 16, 2028, could be the most suitable option. However, this is merely a proposal. Naturally, the discretion and final decision-making authority on this matter rests with the parliament,” Ucum also wrote.