Data
Gulf war tensions push geopolitical risk index to 9/11 highs - Oxford Economics
The outbreak of what has been called “the worst energy disruption in history” by the IEA International Energy Agency (IEA) has sent the global geopolitical risk index to levels not seen since the 9/11 terrorist attacks on New York.
Iran’s oil sales soar past pre-war levels
Iran’s oil exports have bounced back to surpass pre-war levels, data from analytics firm Kpler show, as regional producers have scaled back production due to difficulties exporting the commodity through the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.
Moldova’s GDP up 2.4% y/y in 2025 after robust growth in H2
Moldova’s economy expanded by 2.4% y/y in 2025, supported by a strong recovery in the second half of the year after a weak start.
Romania’s trade gap keeps shrinking as imports drop by 7.7% y/y in January
For nine consecutive months, Romania’s exports have performed comparatively better than imports, resulting in a gradual narrowing of the trade deficit.
Turkey’s central bankers feel the winds of war, benchmark rate kept on hold
Calculations indicate $22bn in FX reserves were burnt through in one week of interventions aimed at defending lira.
Romania’s retail sales down 9.1% y/y in January as households' sentiment deteriorates
Households reduced spending amid rising energy bills, slower wage growth and a deteriorating outlook.
Israel lowers 2026 GDP growth forecast
Ministry of Finance Chief Economist Dr Shmuel Abramson reduced Israel's 2026 GDP growth forecast from 5.2% to 4.7%.
Uzbekistan’s foreign arrivals jump sixfold from 1.9mn in 2021 to 11.7mn in 2025
Around 1.9mn people last year came to the country for leisure and recreational tourism. Figure rose by around 740,000 year on year.
Montenegro’s GDP grows 1.5% in Q4 2025
EBRD projects Montenegro’s GDP to expand by 3.2% in 2026, up by 0.5 percentage points from the estimate issued in September.
North Macedonia annual inflation slows to 2.9% in February
Annual inflation fell from the 3.2% recorded in January.
European arms imports triple as global transfers rise, SIPRI says
Arms imports by European countries more than tripled over the past five years, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Romania revises 2025 GDP growth slightly upwards to 0.7%
The economy weakened significantly toward the end of the year, after fiscal consolidation measures were enforced.
Polled economists say war fallout means no rate cut ahead in Turkey this week
Capital Economics, meanwhile, says a hike cannot be ruled out.