The Republic of Congo government has refuted claims that circulated over the weekend of a coup attempt against President Denis Nguesso, who has held office for an uninterrupted 39 years.

Allegations had spread on social media of an orchestrated effort by military officers to remove the 79-year-old leader from power. At the time they began circulating, Nguesso was in New York for the 78th session of the United Nations General Assembly.

Information Minister Thierry Moungalla took to X (formerly Twitter) on Sunday (September 17) to unequivocally dismiss talk of a coup, stating.

“The government categorically denies the spread of false information. We wish to reassure the public of the prevailing tranquility and encourage everyone to carry on with their daily activities calmly,” he wrote.

Recent months have seen a surge in coup d'états across Africa, with the most recent occurrence taking place in neighboring Gabon, where military forces assumed control in August, and in Niger, the month before.

Semafor writes that three countries in Central Africa’s Congo Basin, however, are being closely watched for the possibility of a future political upheaval or coups after the fall of the Bongo dynasty in Gabon.

Congo, Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea are all “seen by analysts and longtime Africa watchers as having similar conditions of decades-long rulers, multigenerational economic mismanagement, and an agitated, resentful populace,” the platform writes.

The Congo Basin, known for rainforests that absorb more carbon than the Amazon, spans six countries: Cameroon, Central African Republic, the Republic of Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon.

“It is home to some of the world’s longest-running authoritarian regimes but also hosts some very unstable political systems. The vast majority of people born in Equatorial Guinea, Cameroon, and Congo Brazzaville have only ever known one leader,” Semafor writes.

The political system of the Central African Republic is undergoing upheaval while the uncertainty around DR Congo’s December elections weighs heavy on the country and its neighbours, it notes.

“The two countries to watch are Congo Brazzaville and Cameroon,” Mvemba Dizolele, director of the Africa programme at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, is quoted as saying.

“These are two countries where the French currently have a strong grip [and] they both have aged leaders who have mismanaged their countries.”  

In Brazzaville, Nguesso had a reshuffle back in January, but there is talk that family disputes around the aeging leader could provide an opportunity for someone to make a move, including his nephew and intelligence chief Jean-Dominique Okemba.

“There are a lot of people there with their own ambitions and their own relationships to France,” explained CSIS’s Dizolele.