Vladimir Putin's meeting with Donald Trump in Anchorage backfired. The Russian president is now confident that military escalation will not lead to a significant increase in US military aid to Ukraine, much less intervention, Bloomberg reports, citing sources close to the Kremlin.

Russia has been escalating its attacks on Ukraine since August with the largest strikes starting a week or two after talks between the two sides started and a meeting between the Russian and US presidents during the Alaska summit on August 15.

Trump then told EU leaders the US demands that its European allies immediately cease purchasing Russian energy and impose secondary sanctions against India and China after the Paris summit on September 4.

Both of these measures directly harm the Union's economy, which is much more dependent on Chinese imports than the US. Europe refused, fudging the issue with the nineteenth sanctions package that plans to phase imports of LNG out a year early by January 1, 2027 – if it can get unanimous agreement from all 27 members – but still contains no ban on oil imports, according to comments by the EU Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Olof Gill speaking on September 22.

While the new EU sanctions package panders to Trump’s demands, EU officials have admitted that they will not work unless the US comes on board and helps enforce them. As bne IntelliNews has reported, the similar oil price cap sanctions on Russian oil have largely failed and Russia continues to be able to fund its war with oil export revenues. The mooted ban on LNG imports is also unlikely to work as Europe remains Russia’s biggest customer for LNG and will struggle to replace it.

With Kyiv rapidly running out of money following the withdrawal of US support since Trump took office, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has taken matters into his own hands: if the West cannot effectively cut Russia’s oil exports, Ukraine has begun to use its long-range drones and new cruise missiles to target Russian refineries, reducing throughput by some 20% since August and causing a fuel crisis in some Russia's regions.

Previously, Ukraine’s western allies had discouraged Ukraine from targeting oil assets inside Russia for fear of sparking oil prices spikes and escalating the war into a direct conflict between Russia and Nato. But now Ukraine is increasingly using home-made missiles and drones – Zelenskiy says Ukraine is now supplying 60% of its materiel from domestic production – the West’s ability to control the use of these weapons has fallen away.

However, as Ukraine’s financial position deteriorates and Russian Putin ramps up the pressure on the battlefield, preparing for a long war now the Trump peace initiative has comprehensively stalled, Zelenskiy has no choice but to escalate these missile strikes.

While the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) is on its backfoot, it has successfully mounted a heroic defence of the Donbas. Russia's summer offensive has failed to achieve its intended goals. The advance of Russian troops is now measured in square kilometres again and most importantly, a large assault on the key logistic hub of Pokrovsk and Kupyansk failed to capture either city that could have caused the eastern frontline to collapse, coming with a horrific loss of life for the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR).

Bankova (Ukraine’s equivalent of the Kremlin) is trying to keep the hope that Trump will come to Ukraine aid alive and needs to demonstrate to the White House that it is not losing the war and inflicting real pain on Russia’s economy. That means more, and more spectacular, attacks like the Operation Spiderweb drone attack on Siberian airfields on June 1. The destruction of Russian oil refineries are doubly appealing as they hurt Russia’s economy and look good on TV. Russian railways in southern Russia, the oil terminals in the Baltic Sea, and targets in occupied Crimea, including the Kerch bridge, are all obvious targets for both missiles and Ukraine black ops.

“In this context, Ukraine cannot help but use all its available capabilities for a series of strikes against Russia with an even more significant publicity effect,” The Bell said in a commentary. “This is especially true given the significant advancement in Ukraine's available weapons: heavy Flamingo cruise missile with a declared range covering the entire European part of Russia, and Toloka underwater drones with a declared warhead weighing five tons. One of the natural targets for the latter are the pillars of the Crimean Bridge. Ukraine's attempts to forcefully change the military narrative are likely in the near future.”