Finland’s President Alexander Stubb has warned that a ceasefire in Russia’s war against Ukraine is unlikely to materialise before spring, and urged Western allies to sustain support for Kyiv despite recent corruption scandals.

His comments, reported by European Pravda from an Associated Press briefing, underscore lingering strategic hurdles for conflict resolution even as Kyiv becomes mired in the worst political scandal of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s tenure.

“I’m not very optimistic about achieving a ceasefire or the beginning of peace negotiations, at least this year,” Stubb said.

Stubb repeated the constant rhetoric of the need to exert “maximum pressure” on Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin to force a shift in their strategic calculus, despite the failure of the world’s most extreme sanctions regime to alter the Kremlin’s policies.

“Putin basically wants to deny the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, and these objectives have not changed since the war began almost four years ago,” the Finnish president said.

Nevertheless, his remarks reflect a more subdued assessment of prospects for peace than the firebrand support Ukraine received during the first two years of the war. They come against a backdrop of Ukraine’s political turbulence and the increasingly negative coverage of Ukraine’s performance on the battlefield. Kyiv is grappling with the Energoatom corruption scandal where close associates of the president have reportedly stolen $100mn dollars from the energy sector.

Despite the damning news, Stubb stressed that European support must remain steadfast. He argued that without sustained pressure and unity among allies, Moscow’s intransigence will persist and the war will continue to exact a heavy toll on Ukraine’s infrastructure, economy and societal cohesion.

“Stubb outlined three major issues on the road to a ceasefire: so let’s run through it,” journalist and bne IntelliNews columnist Leonid Ragozin said in a social media post:

“Rebuilding the economy: Moscow will likely agree to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction from frozen assets, but last we heard - it will insist on part of these funds to be spent in occupied territories (which suffered most). This is negotiable, but if the EU signs off the reparation credit - forget it. Without the Russian money, Western funding is going to be insufficient - all the Western interest in Ukraine will evaporate as soon as the war is over.”

“Security guarantees: Easy one - there won’t be any security guarantees. Ukraine has been duped on this subject since the Bucharest summit. Another Budapest memorandum at best. The best guarantee for Ukraine is the West and Russia agreeing on the new security architecture in Europe.”

“Territorial claims: Putin wants the rest of Donetsk region, but Zelensky wants to lose it *honourably*, in a battle. The risk is the fate of northern Donbas will look sealed by the end of winter, but in the meantime Ukraine will lose swathes of land in Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv. At some point, Putin may add full Zaporizhzhia withdrawal to his conditions. Peskov already said that the current delay in talks will cost Ukraine a deteriorating starting position at the talks,” Ragozin concluded.