The battle for Pokrovsk continues to rage after Russia came close to taking the Donbas’ key logistical hub last week. A determined counter offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) has kept the Russian forces at bay in a struggle that is turning into a modern day Stalingrad.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has accused Russia of once again failing to meet battlefield targets personally set by Russian President Vladimir Putin, underscoring growing doubts about Moscow’s ability to convert its overwhelming manpower and weapons advantages into territorial gains as the war grinds into winter.

In a late-night address following a high-level security meeting in Kyiv, Zelenskiy said commanders and intelligence chiefs had delivered updated assessments of Russia’s operational planning. Key supply routes for the AFU have been kept open, while others supplying the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) have been bombed into ruble. The briefing was led by Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, and Oleh Ivashchenko, head of the Foreign Intelligence Service.

“Kyrylo Budanov reported on the situation in the most critical sectors of the front, on Russia's military preparations and on the timelines the occupier is counting on. At this point, Russia has failed to meet yet another deadline set by Putin for the capture of Pokrovsk and Kupiansk, and those deadlines have been pushed back once again,” Zelenskiy said.

Pokrovsk, a transport hub in Donetsk region, and Kupiansk, a strategic logistics node in Kharkiv region, have been among Moscow’s key priorities for months. Heavy fighting has continued along both axes, but Ukrainian special forces and a surge of AFU reinforcements in the last week, organised Budanov, have prevented the AFR from consolidating gains and capturing the city, despite persistent assaults and the rotation of fresh units.

In a blow for the AFR, Ukraine's defence forces reported an airstrike destroyed a key supply road connecting the cities of Selidove and Pokrovsk – a route that Russian troops used to infiltrate Pokrovsk with light vehicles – at the weekend as Russia’s stranglehold over the city weakens.

“As a result, the Russians have lost the ability to use this route to infiltrate Pokrovsk in light vehicles," the Defence Ministry said, adding additional defences are being installed in other areas, and that the troops being sent by the Russian command to clear these barriers are "dead men walking".

Separately, Russian forces raised their flag at the Myrnohrad coal mine in the besieged city of Myrnohrad on November13, but Ukrainian troops reportedly destroyed it the same day and prevented the Russians from retaining their foothold in the city.

The battle is turning into one of the defining actions of the war. Should Ukraine lose control of the city it would become a jumping off point for Russian forces to attack nearby crucial towns and there are few other defensible cities between Pokrovsk and the Dnipro River that divides Ukraine in half.

Zelenskiy said in parallel a renewed push on Ukraine’s covert and diplomatic fronts would continue. “We will continue applying our long-range sanctions as well – our special services, and primarily the Security Service of Ukraine, as well as the Ukrainian army, have the relevant tasks. We are preparing to coordinate our diplomatic efforts with key partners, taking into account the updated assessments of the situation. We are setting up measures that can ensure a boost in diplomatic activity.”

The problems come as Zelenskiy is increasing embroiled in the expanding Energoatom corruption scandal that threatens to undermine support amongst Kyiv’s Western allies at a time when Kyiv has become entirely reliant on Brussels financial support, but has not yet been able to raise sufficient money to continue financing the war.

Battlefield updates

Ukrainian forces face intensifying pressure in and around the battle for Pokrovsk, a strategically important town in the Donetsk region, as Russian troops continue to exploit thinning defensive lines and worsening weather conditions.

Russian advances in and around Pokrovsk over the last few days suggest that Russian forces in Pokrovsk are prioritising the seizure of the settlement itself, according to a report by Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

“They do not appear to be focused on supporting efforts by the 51st Combined Arms Army (CAA, formerly the 1st Donetsk People’s Republic Army Corps [DNR AC], Southern Military District [SMD]) to close the pocket from the north and northeast with a complementary attack from the south at this time,” ISW said in a report on November 15.
The Russian military command is notably not pursuing the standard measures one would expect in such a battlefield configuration, namely focusing forces and means on completing the encirclement, which would normally be the fastest and least costly way to seize the entire area, ISW adds. The standard tactics have been undermined by the prevalence and effectiveness of drones in the city that has changed the nature of war. Traditional numerical advantages in troop numbers of heavy equipment have been negated by drones and turned the battle for Pokrovsk into a modern day analogy of the bloody battle for Stalingrad where the city became a kill zone with undefined frontlines and random death striking any soldier brave enough to enter the city limits. Ukrainian counterattacks on the northern shoulder of the pocket and a continued Ukrainian presence within Pokrovsk are complicating Russian advances and Russia’s ability to close the pocket, but that fact should not be enough in itself to cause the Russian command to be distracted from the effort from the south, ISW adds.

The fighting around Pokrovsk, though not yet decisive, may serve as a harbinger of broader battlefield challenges for Ukraine, particularly in the context of overstretched reserves and a reactive defence posture, according to Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and one of the most closely followed analysts on the war. Nevertheless, the situation around Pokrovsk has deteriorated steadily in recent weeks.

“Russian forces kept infiltrating through AFU brigades holding the southern part of the city,” he noted in a long thread on social media on November 13 after extensive interviews with sources. “Ukrainian positions grew increasingly thin. Worsening weather enabled Russian troops to get more men into the city in recent weeks.”

While Pokrovsk has not been encircled, the operational risks have escalated. Should the city fall, it would immediately endanger nearby Myrnohrad some 5km to the east, and potentially create a tactical pocket that is already increasingly difficult to evacuate.

“If Pokrovsk falls, so does Myrnohrad, and the pocket closes,” Kofman warned. “The immediate result is Russian forces will operate drones from Pokrovsk, using the city to displace AFU units another 15km or more.” Drones now play a critical role in fire control and logistics, complicating Ukrainian efforts to manage an orderly withdrawal.

“Drones now affect fire control in depths such that it is much more difficult to withdraw equipment, or extract people from a pocket,” Kofman said. “Hence a late exit akin to Avdiivka is now a more problematic proposition.”

Drones continue to be responsible for most daily casualties, with the front line defined by overlapping drone and artillery fire engagement zones 20-25km from the forward line of troops, in what is known as the ‘kill zone.’ Russian troops have reportedly started to refuse to enter the city from position on the outskirts as they face certain death by Ukrainian hunter-killer drone pairs on the streets of the city.

“One of the key dynamics this year has been a tug of war contest between Russian forces and the AFU over superiority in this kill zone, and its relative footprint. That in turn determines initiative on the ground, and the cost incurred in offensive, or defensive ops,” says Kofman.

However, Russia has developed the “Rubikon” drone unit and plied it with massive resources which has been tasked with searching for and destroying Ukrainian drone pilots to great effect, according to the Financial Times, which the AFR has employed to good effect in Pokrovsk.

“On the Russian side Rubikon formations remain a leading problem for drone operators, not only the drone companies themselves, but because they train other Russian drone units to replicate their approaches focused on AFU logistics, drone crews, and intercepting,” says Kofman.

Rubikon means that casualties amongst infantry have fallen while that amongst drone operators has risen. But in the last week Ukraine has rushed reinforcements to stabilise the flanks, but the response may be insufficient, says Kofman.

“Ukraine has brought in reinforcements... but this may not be enough given the extent of Russian infiltration at this stage,” Kofman said. “Counterattacking at this stage is costly, and has implications for other sectors like Zaporizhzhia, which will be without reserves.”

Pokrovsk holds operational value—it is not simply symbolic. Its capture would widen Russia’s axis of advance west of the next important town of Kramatorsk and push the front line closer to the Donetsk regional border. Still, Kofman advised caution against overstating the immediate strategic impact.

“Its loss opens the path for Russian forces... but it does not open those cities to be quickly taken,” he said. After nearly four years of fighting, the AFR still has taken only 20% of the country and its progress in Donbas is still measured in tens of kilometres not hundreds, despite the heavy concentration of troops in Donbas.

The battle for Pokrovsk is taking place against a broader backdrop of static or attritional fighting, particularly along the Zaporizhzhia–Dnipro–Donetsk axis, says Kofman.

“Russia’s advance this year has been lacklustre, especially along the axes they prioritised,” Kofman noted. “The costs have been high... But Pokrovsk can be an unfortunate postscript to that story, especially if it results in unnecessary losses.” Ukrainian positions further southwest around Huliapole also appear vulnerable.

“Ukrainian defences around Huliapole look increasingly incohesive,” Kofman observed, suggesting that Russia might exploit emerging gaps in this less prioritised sector. Ultimately, the risk lies in Ukraine’s limited flexibility as a chronic manpower shortage opens up kilometre-long holes in its defences.

“A lack of reserves means AFU must take a firefighting approach,” Kofman concluded. “Counterattacking in Pokrovsk means few forces are available to stabilise the situation anywhere else.” That leaves Ukraine managing a precarious balance—trying to hold the line in one sector without opening opportunities for Russian gains in another.