China’s carbon dioxide emissions remained flat in the third quarter of 2025 compared to a year earlier, extending a trend of stabilisation that began in March 2024.

This apparent plateau masks sharply diverging trends across key sectors, with a rise in chemical output emissions offsetting declines from transport and heavy industry, according to new analysis by Carbon Brief.

China is close to, or has already passed, peak emissions and one of first large countries to come anywhere close to this goal. Despite being the largest emitter, along with India, the third largest, both countries remain within their carbon budget set in 2015 in Paris. The US and EU, the second and fourth largest emitters respectively, have both massively blown through the allowed emissions set by the Paris Accords.

Electric vehicle uptake and a cooling construction sector drove a 5% year-on-year fall in transport fuel emissions and a 7% drop from cement production. Steel sector emissions also fell by 1%, though the reduction lagged behind the 3% fall in output due to increased reliance on lower-carbon electric arc furnaces.

“The real estate contraction continues to weigh heavily on demand for cement and steel,” Carbon Brief reported on November 13. “Electric arc steelmakers absorbed more of the fall, leaving carbon-intensive coal-based production relatively insulated.”

Despite strong electricity demand growth, power sector emissions were unchanged. Electricity demand accelerated to 6.1% in the third quarter, up from 3.7% in the first half of the year, driven largely by air conditioning during an unusually hot summer. Yet this demand was almost entirely met by non-fossil power: solar generation grew 46% and wind by 11%, with small increases in nuclear and hydropower.

In the first nine months of 2025, China added 240GW of solar and 61GW of wind capacity. “China is still on track for a new renewable record in 2025,” the report said, noting developers are racing to complete projects under the 14th Five-Year Plan, which ends this year.

Overall, power-sector CO2 output was down 2% across the year to September. The average thermal efficiency of coal-fired power also improved marginally, and the share of gas-fired generation rose, contributing further to emissions stability.

The picture is less positive in the chemical sector, where coal and oil use surged. Emissions from non-transport oil use grew by 10%, driven by expansion in the production of plastics and other chemicals. This resulted in an overall 2% increase in oil consumption, despite the drop in transport-related use.

Gas consumption also grew 3% year-on-year, with a 9% increase in the power sector and a 2% rise in other sectors.

The full-year emissions outcome for 2025 remains uncertain. “China’s CO2 emissions in 2025 are now finely balanced between a small fall or rise, depending on what happens in the last quarter,” Carbon Brief noted. However, September alone saw a 3% decline year-on-year, strengthening the likelihood of an annual drop.

Seasonal patterns may also play a role. Summer cooling demand, which has risen by one-third in the past decade due to hotter weather and wider air conditioner use, tends to drive peak emissions. Consumption in the fourth quarter is usually lower, potentially easing pressure on the power sector.

Nevertheless, China is on course to miss its target of cutting carbon intensity—CO2 emissions per unit of GDP—between 2020 and 2025. This implies steeper reductions will be required to meet the country’s 2030 climate goals.

“While an emissions increase or decrease of 1% or less might not make a huge difference in an objective sense,” the report said, “it has heightened symbolic meaning,” particularly as Beijing has not yet set a fixed date for its emissions to peak.

With 120GW of wind and 123GW of solar still under construction as of early 2025, much of which is expected online by year-end, China’s renewable push remains robust. But the outlook remains finely poised, hinging on whether clean energy growth can continue to match or outpace future fossil demand.