Versova, a northern Mumbai suburb, stretches along a busy and densely populated waterfront on the Arabian Sea. The Versova waterfront is well known both for its fishing village and for residential developments that are home to a significant portion of Mumbai’s middle class. Its sandy beaches, coconut groves and the thriving Koli fishing community, whose boats and nets often line the shore, give Versova a unique coastal character.

In recent years, Versova has been in the news thanks to the community-led clean-up drives that transformed its beach, turning it into a symbol of environmental action. But a new report raises troubling questions about the future of neighbourhoods like Versova and the Koli villages that dot its coastline

A study by the Bengaluru-based think-tank Centre for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP) warns that several Indian coastal cities could face significant land loss due to rising sea levels by 2040. The study further states that the threat is expected to intensify by the end of the century.

According to the report titled “Sea level rise scenarios and inundation maps for selected Indian coastal cities”, more than 10% of Mumbai’s land area is at risk of submergence by 2040. Panaji and Chennai may lose between 5% and 10%, while Kochi, Mangaluru, Visakhapatnam, Udupi, and Puri could see between 1% and 5% of their land submerged.

The report assesses historical sea level data and future projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) medium- and high-emission Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios for 2040, 2060, 2080 and 2100. These scenarios take into account socioeconomic variables such as population growth, urbanisation, and education.

In Versova, many residents continue to build, in many instances as high as two or three floors, or repair homes and shanties close to the high-tide line, unaware that future storm surges and tidal shifts could render these structures vulnerable or uninhabitable.

The change is already underway. Between 1987 and 2021, Mumbai recorded the highest rise in sea level among Indian coastal cities at 4.44cm, followed by Haldia (2.726cm), Visakhapatnam (2.381cm), Kochi (2.213cm) and Chennai (0.679cm). Projections indicate that even under a medium-emission scenario, Mumbai could see sea levels rise by 76.2cm by 2100, with comparable increases expected in Panaji, Udupi and Mangaluru.

The study flags serious implications for key sectors including agriculture, water resources, biodiversity and public health. Coastal ecosystems such as mangroves, backwaters, and beaches — vital for tourism and biodiversity — are especially vulnerable. Cities like Haldia, Udupi, Panaji and Yanam, with extensive wetlands and farmlands, face heightened risk.

Looking further ahead, the report warns that by 2100, Mangaluru, Haldia, Paradip, Thoothukudi and Yanam could see an even greater percentage of land submerged than Mumbai and Chennai, especially under high-emission scenarios.

CSTEP says the findings are intended to help policymakers develop targeted urban adaptation and mitigation strategies to address the risks of climate-induced sea level rise.

Groundwater risks 

Environmental activists have raised additional concerns, warning that rising sea levels could also elevate groundwater tables, increasing the risk of inland flooding. As reported by the Free Press Journal in March this year, the NatConnect Foundation, a Navi Mumbai-based NGO, has called on Prime Minister Narendra Modi to take urgent note of research from Dunedin, New Zealand.

The New Zealand study, published by the American Geophysical Union (AGU), suggests that sea level rise and groundwater rise could occur simultaneously, worsening flooding in low-lying urban areas. B.N. Kumar, director of NatConnect, said the Dunedin case serves as a wake-up call for Indian cities, and underscored the role of wetlands as natural buffers that must be preserved.

Kumar criticised authorities for failing to act proactively on ecological threats. He urged the Union Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC) and the Geological Survey of India to begin monitoring coastal groundwater levels alongside sea level changes. Despite the severity of the issue, public discussion in India has remained limited, with only a brief mention in an official report on coastal erosion, according to Free Press Journal.

Government response 

In response to these growing threats, the Indian government has laid out a multi-faceted climate strategy, focusing on adaptation, mitigation and resilience-building, as noted in a government communication published in March 2025.

At the core of this strategy is the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC), launched in 2008, which includes eight national missions addressing solar energy, sustainable agriculture, energy efficiency, and water conservation. The plan includes measures specifically aimed at assessing and managing sea level rise in coastal regions.

The National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change (NAFCC) supports resilience initiatives in vulnerable coastal zones, while Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) notifications regulate development along the shoreline to reduce environmental degradation and limit human impact.

State governments have also developed State Action Plans on Climate Change (SAPCCs) aligned with national priorities. These focus on region-specific risks such as flooding, droughts, and shifting monsoon patterns.

Disaster preparedness has improved through the efforts of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) in collaboration with the India Meteorological Department (IMD), enhancing early warning systems for cyclones, floods, and heatwaves.

In the agricultural sector, the government is promoting climate-resilient practices, including drought-resistant crops and improved irrigation techniques. Simultaneously, India is accelerating its renewable energy transition, with a target of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel energy capacity by 2030.

Water security initiatives such as the Jal Jeevan Mission and the National Water Mission are focused on improving sustainable water use in drought-prone regions.

The government has also embedded climate considerations into national budgeting and policy planning, aligning with the Paris Agreement and expanding climate finance mechanisms.

Activist pressure continues

In April 2025, Free Press Journal reported that the government is now working on a new policy framework to address the dual risks of sea level rise and groundwater-induced flooding. This move followed a grievance filed by NatConnect with the Prime Minister’s Office, urging authorities to prepare for what the group described as “floods from beneath”.

The MoEFCC responded formally, with Arvind Kumar Agrawal, director of impact assessment, acknowledging the concerns and affirming that they would be considered in the ministry’s climate adaptation plans. He also reiterated the importance of preserving natural water retention zones.

Nandakumar Pawar, director of the NGO Sagar Shakti, warned that real estate and infrastructure interests are driving changes in Coastal Zone Management Plans (CZMPs), which could weaken environmental protections. He cited the destruction of intertidal wetlands in Uran and Panvel as contributing to increased flooding and rising relief costs.

With sea level rise now recognised not only as a coastal threat but also a potential driver of inland flooding through elevated groundwater, environmentalists are calling for science-backed, long-term planning. 

Public awareness remains low

Despite sustained efforts by climate activists to highlight the dangers of rising sea levels and their potential impact on coastal cities, public awareness in cities like Mumbai remains strikingly low. 

This is the case in Versova, where the Koli fishing community, despite its deep-rooted relationship with the sea, often lacks awareness of the long-term consequences of sea-level rise. 

The general perception is shaped by the fact that the city has not yet experienced any severe or visible disruptions — such as major flooding, displacement or infrastructure damage — attributable directly to sea-level rise. As a result, the issue often fails to register as an immediate concern for most residents.

A large section of Mumbai’s population lives in informal settlements or slums, many of which are located near the coast. However, these communities have not yet faced any significant consequences attributed specifically to sea-level rise, which contributes to the overall lack of concern.

The disconnect between scientific projections and lived experience continues to be a major challenge in building awareness and resilience in a densely populated coastal city like Mumbai.

This article is part of a series on the impact of the Climate Crisis on major cities around the world. 

The other articles in the series are: 

Cities confront the rising tide of climate change

Taipei’s climate countdown

Jakarta’s sinking villages