The COP30 summit in Belém, Brazil, kicks off on November 10 and will be very closely watched as one of the last opportunities to avert the very worst of the Climate catastrophe. The most closely watched speech of will be China’s presentation of its 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) climate policy plan, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) said in a comment on September 10

China has emerged as the Global Green Champion as it approaches peak emissions, but it is also the world’s biggest emitter of GHGs. With its emissions expected to start falling by the end of this year – the first large industrial nation to achieve this goal – China is in a position to make a major impact on the course of the global Climate Crisis all by itself.

President Xi Jinping has pledged that the new NDC will cover “all economic sectors and all greenhouse gases,” the document will be a critical signal of China’s ambition in the lead-up to its 2060 carbon neutrality goal. Over the past decade, China has been responsible for “around 90% of the emissions growth” globally, while simultaneously installing more renewable energy capacity than the rest of the world combined.

For the first time, Beijing is expected to set explicit emission reduction targets, rather than merely pledging to peak emissions before 2030. According to CREA, “the credibility of China’s carbon neutrality goal requires substantive emission reductions towards the goal over the next decade.”

“The phrasing of commitments, the choice of base years, the presence (or absence) of sectoral targets, and the reaffirmation of current pledges all matter greatly for understanding what Beijing is actually promising,” CREA said.

The language used in the headline target will be particularly revealing. A soft formulation such as “strive to achieve X%” would imply conditional ambition, whereas “reduce by at least X%” would indicate a binding minimum and a willingness to exceed the goal. CREA noted, “Such a headline target would send a negative signal to the downpayments made by clean energy sectors and give polluting sectors a free pass for another time.”

The base year China selects for measuring emissions reductions will also be pivotal. If the government names a fixed year such as 2025, CREA said, “this would give a firm and near-term anchor” and confirm that “China’s emissions are likely to peak in 2025.” By contrast, using an undefined peak “anytime before 2030” would suggest further emissions growth and incentivise a last-minute buildout of fossil fuel infrastructure.

Sectoral targets are just as important. China has already surpassed its wind and solar installation target of 1,200 GW, six years ahead of schedule, and CREA estimates it could reach 4,500 GW by 2035 if current trends continue. The group also pointed to the steel sector, where it sees “potential of cutting around 40% of emissions over the coming decade,” and called for targets to boost clean steel production.

Continuity with China’s previous climate targets will serve as another test of commitment. CREA highlighted that the country is “currently far off track” for its 2025 carbon intensity target due to a high-emissions post-pandemic recovery. Yet it noted that “to still achieve its carbon intensity target for 2030, absolute emission reductions will already be required over the next five years.”

Coal remains a central question. Despite President Xi’s pledge to “strictly control” new coal power projects, approvals have surged in recent years. Reaffirming the promise to phase down coal in the next Five-Year Plan “would signal that China remains committed to its international pledges,” CREA said.

To align with the Paris Agreement, CREA estimates China should reduce CO₂ emissions “by 28 to 37% from current levels by 2035.” While current policy trends suggest a 30% cut is feasible, CREA cautioned that “China’s leaders are unlikely to commit to this level of ambition at the moment.” Nonetheless, the organisation believes there is “a good chance that the targets will be substantially overachieved and upgraded later.”

“The NDC won’t be the final word,” CREA said. “It is a starting point and guiding direction for China’s development.”

The Climate Crisis is accelerating. The IPCC says that the Paris Agreement goal of keeping temperature increases to less than 1.5°C-2°C above the pre-industrial benchmark has already been missed and temperature increases are on course to reach a catastrophic 2.7C-3.1C by 2050. At that point extreme temperature events will become routine and large parts of the world will become uninhabitable.

Having missed the target, going forward another theme that should emerge from COP30 is the need to switch focus from prevention to mitigation. Limiting temperature increases to 2°C is no longer possible, but every fraction of degree above that is going to make a difference. Hence the details of Beijing’s NDC plan will affect the whole planet.