Bosnia & Herzegovina is in a tense standoff as Milorad Dodik, the nationalist leader of the Serb-majority Republika Srpska entity, defies a court ban on holding office and signals he could escalate a long-running confrontation with Sarajevo and the West. With his options running out, there is speculation that Dodik could try a push for Republika Srpska’s secession from Bosnia — or at step up his conflict with state instititions — in a bid to hold onto power. 

Although Bosnia’s Central Election Commission (CEC) stripped Dodik of his Republika Srpska presidency mandate after a court conviction for defying the authority of the international high representative, he continues to act as the region’s de facto leader. 

The CEC has scheduled an election to appoint Dodik’s replacement on November 23, but before that Republika Srpska’s parliament has endorsed plans for a referendum on October 25 asking citizens if they reject the court verdict and CEC decision against Dodik. Both upcoming elections are potential flashpoints in Bosnia’s volatile political landscape. 

Timothy Ash, senior sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, sees a combustible mix of ethnic rivalries and international pressures. “There does now ... appear to be a number of factors, and regional players, which are pushing Dodik and his followers to escalate the current conflict, and perhaps they now see the opportunity to force through their claims for independence,” Ash wrote in a note emailed to bne IntelliNews.

Ash argues that Europe’s distracted leadership, questions over Nato’s readiness, and rising instability in neighbouring Serbia, which has experienced months of anti-government protests, “just seem to be coming together to encourage escalation now in [Bosnia]”, adding that “any such move though by [Republika Srpska] to secession would be highly destabilising for the region”.

Indeed, the high representative for Bosnia & Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt, warned back in May that the country faces a serious political crisis which may lead to its disintegration, following secessionist actions by Dodik. 

In his report on the implementation of the 1995 General Framework Agreement for Peace (known as the Dayton Agreement), Schmidt said Dodik’s attempts to undermine the constitutional order, including the introduction of a draft entity constitution, posed a direct threat to the territorial and societal integrity of Bosnia. 

Fragile framework

Bosnia’s post-war state, consisting of two autonomous entities plus the Brčko district, has long been fragile. “BiH’s [Bosnia & Herzegovina’s] awkward construct reflects the legacy of the war, and the desire not to reward ethnic cleansing with territorial gains,” Ash noted, but warned that “since its inception many have questioned its durability given centrifugal forces pulling Croats in the Federation to Croatia and Serbs in [Republika Srpska] to Serbia”. 

For years, Dodik and fellow Bosnian Serb politicians have been talking of secession and taking steps to defy the authority of Bosnia’s state-level institutions. 

In March, the Republika Srpska parliament backed a new draft constitution that allows the entity to set up its own army and judiciary. 

Until now, Ash observed, three restraints held Dodik in check: EU accession hopes, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić’s moderating influence, and the high representative’s powers to remove Bosnian officials. “Clearly the third option/bluff has now been called, hence the current crisis,” he wrote.

International allies 

Over the last few days, Dodik has embarked on visits to his closest international allies, Serbia, Hungary and Russia. 

Dodik revealed in a recent interview with the BBC that Russian President Vladimir Putin does not favour Republika Srpska’s secession from Bosnia, but comments made by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov indicate Moscow is ready to exploit the crisis in Bosnia to score points against the West. 

Lavrov accused the West of “trampling” on the accords to gain “undivided control” over Bosnia and warned that “destroying the consensus that underlies Bosnia and Herzegovina is … an invitation to another war in the Balkans”. 

Russia’s top diplomat also praised Dodik for planning a referendum in Republika Srpska and claimed that “the West does not like referendums”, referencing the referendum held in Crimea, leading to the Ukrainian region’s annexation by Russia. 

Ever since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, there has been speculation Russia will exploit Balkan tensions to put Ukraine’s Western backers under additional pressure. 

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in a September 11 note that Moscow is seizing the moment. Commenting on the meeting between Dodik and Lavrov, ISW wrote that “the Kremlin continues efforts to destabilise the Balkans and dismantle the 1995 Dayton Accords that ended the 1992-1995 Bosnian War, likely as part of a larger campaign to divide and distract Europe.”

ISW analysts concluded that “the Kremlin has previously leveraged its relationship with Republika Srpska to further influence the Balkans, sow divisions in Europe, and undermine the US-backed Dayton Accords to throw the Balkans into turmoil.”

Dwindling horizons 

On the other hand, Dodik’s intensive lobbying effort, social media charm offensive and even an offer to hand over Republika Srpska’s mineral resources has failed to win over the Trump administration in the US. 

Sanctions on Dodik personally remain in place, imposed because of his “continued efforts to undermine the democratic and multiethnic framework that defines modern-day Bosnia and Herzegovina”, a US Treasury statement said in January. 

In Europe, Hungary’s support for Dodik has stood in the way of the imposition of EU sanctions. However EU member Slovenia recently imposed sanctions on Dodik — being hit in return with bans on its president and foreign minister visiting Republika Srpska. 

The UK sanctioned Dodik and the Serb member of Bosnia’s tripartite presidency Zeljka Cvijanovic back in 2022 because of their “attempts to undermine the legitimacy and functionality of the State of Bosnia and Herzegovina”. The UK “believes the pair are deliberately undermining the hard-won peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina,” a Foreign Office statement said at the time. 

On top of the accusations of destabilising Bosnia, Dodik is also under pressure on corruption allegations. 

The leader of the Party for Justice and Order, Nebojša Vukanović, told a press conference on September 5 he was filing a criminal case against Dodik and others in relation to the ‘Comsar-Serdarov affair’ concerning the granting of a concession for a coal mine in Ugljevik, which they claim caused damages to the entity budget of over BAM300mn (€153mn). 

The US sanctions target Dodik, his allies and family members because of their “efforts to enrich themselves at the public’s expense”, as stated by the US Treasury Department. 

With fresh sanctions from Slovenia and pressure at home over corruption allegations, the question now is whether Dodik will manage to secure backing from his international allies to stay in power, or if the best he can hope for is a negotiated exit and refuge in a friendly country abroad. 

There are unconfirmed reports in the Bosnian media that Dodik has held informal talks with Schmidt about a potential negotiated exit. Some Bosnian media outlets claim Western diplomats are urging him to step down peacefully in return for guarantees against further prosecution.

Broader destabilisation prospects 

A negotiated exit would avert the risk of escalation of the current standoff, which would have negative consequences beyond Bosnia, as Ash cautioned. 

“For BiH itself, it could see the splintering into a newly independent [Republika Srpska] … This would then leave a rump Bosniak Muslim state, and questions around the future of the district of Brčko,” he said.

Revision of borders could “set in train uncomfortable and destabilising precedents — for Ukraine, obviously with Russia’s desire to claim new territory. But also elsewhere in the region… Many countries in the region have historical claims to each others’ current territory.”

“All told,” Ash concluded, “a failure by Europe to address events unfolding in BiH will just reaffirm its weakness in the eyes of external players, be that Putin, [Chinese President] Xi [Jinping] or Trump. And an opportunity to use Europe’s weakness for their advantage.”

As Bosnia approaches the rival votes in October and November, the question is whether Dodik will gamble on a dangerous confrontation that could destabilise not just Bosnia but the wider Balkan region.