The arguments contrast sharply with those of the UK’s Labour government.

WHAT: A Blair think-tank has heavily criticised UK climate policy.

WHY: The report urges against a singular focus on cutting domestic oil and gas production. 

WHAT NEXT: It emphasises the role of technology and innovation, particularly concerning carbon capture and storage, to drive reductions in emissions.

 

An NGO set up by former UK Prime Minister Sir Tony Blair has called for a comprehensive overhaul of the country’s climate strategy, arguing that current net-zero policies are politically unsustainable and will be ineffective in addressing climate change.

Since taking office last summer, the UK’s Labour party – which Blair led as PM between 1997 and 2007 – has stepped up support for renewables and low-carbon technologies whilst also halting domestic oil and gas licensing and increasing a windfall tax on North Sea producers – moves that the industry say will jeopardise the country’s energy security and drive up energy costs.

More broadly, the government’s climate strategy has come under fire from the opposition Conservatives for lacking realism, with criticism focused on the cost of transitioning to net zero by 2050.

In a detailed report released on April 29 by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, titled The Climate Paradox: Why We Need to Reset Action on Climate Change, the institute contends that only a bold shift toward "positive disruption" – driven by innovation and pragmatic realism – can deliver the emissions reductions necessary without triggering political fatigue.

 

Key criticisms

The report essentially argues that the current focus on domestic decarbonisation, lifestyle sacrifices and traditional emissions targets is increasingly disconnected from global geopolitical and economic realities. "We are entering the Era of Disruption," the report states. "Whether it’s an era of negative disruption or positive disruption will depend on the decisions that leaders take."

The institute warns that expecting UK citizens to absorb rising costs and behavioural changes while countries like China and India continue to drive the bulk of emissions growth is both politically unviable and strategically misplaced. "By 2030, the majority of emissions will originate from developing nations," it notes. "We must re-examine our core principles, pinpoint the primary sources of emissions and develop decisive strategies to eliminate them."

At the heart of the report’s alternative strategy is the aggressive development of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and engineered CO2 removal (CDR) technologies, including direct air capture (DAC). While acknowledging the current high costs and energy demands of these systems, the institute insists they are essential to a realistic pathway to net zero. "Even a net-zero future is likely to include continued emissions from fossil fuels," it writes. "Fossil-fuel companies should be required to invest in and scale this technology, and are well-positioned to do so."

The report offers a scathing critique of traditional climate policymaking, asserting that it has been captured by ideological activism rather than pragmatic solutions. "Political leaders by and large know that the debate has become irrational," it writes, but adds that many are "terrified of saying so, for fear of being accused of being climate deniers."

The institute challenges the centrality of the UNFCCC's COP summits, describing them as forums dominated by rhetorical grandstanding rather than real-world solutions. "The COP process will not deliver change at the speed required," he states, urging the formation of smaller, more agile groups focused on targeted emissions reductions and technology deployment.

 

On oil and gas

The report's critique extends to both developed and developing countries. He highlights a sense of unfairness on both sides: developed economies feel they are shouldering disproportionate costs, while developing countries are frustrated by being denied access to cheap energy for development. "They believe, correctly, that they have a right to develop," the institute says. "And those who have already developed using fossil fuels do not have the right to inhibit them."

The report is equally candid about the limitations of current policies. Despite record growth in renewables and EVs, global fossil fuel use continues to rise. The institute points out that China alone began construction of 95 GW of new coal-fired power in 2024, while India passed the milestone of producing 1bn tonnes of coal in a single year. "These are inconvenient facts," it writes. "Any strategy based on phasing out fossil fuels in the short term is doomed to fail."

The institute does not dismiss the urgency of climate change. "The climate is changing, and to our detriment," he writes. But it argues that the climate movement needs to transition from moral crusade to deliverable strategy. "Too often, political leaders fear saying what many know to be true: the current approach isn't working. But they mustn't be silent – there's a new coalition to build."

In terms of UK policy, the argument implies that a singular focus on cutting domestic fossil fuel production is misguided if not matched by global strategies to reduce demand and scale abatement technologies. The institute does not explicitly call for new North Sea developments but critiques the purist mindset that seeks to shut down production without viable alternatives. "The disdain for this technology in favour of the purist solution of stopping fossil fuel production is totally misguided," it writes.

The OEUK, a North Sea oil and gas industry association, has warned that without further investment in production, the UK will be reliant on imports for as much as 80% of its energy needs by 2030, versus 40% currently.

 

Technology and innovation

The institute is especially critical of policy distractions that it believes alienate the public without delivering results. He singles out campaigns to reduce meat consumption and air travel as examples of symbolic but ineffective measures. "Proposed green policies that suggest limiting meat consumption or reducing air travel have alienated many people rather than bringing them along," it writes.

Instead, the institute wants to see a laser focus on technology and innovation: AI to manage energy efficiency and grid optimisation, nuclear power including small modular reactors (SMRs) and a significant push on financing mechanisms, including philanthropic capital. It also urges reform of planning regulations that he says currently block clean-energy growth.

"We need to recognise that without turning some of the emerging technologies into financially viable options, the world will choose the cheapest option," it writes. "This applies to everything from nuclear fusion to sustainable aviation fuel, to green steel and low-emissions cement."

The institute concludes that the political narrative around climate must change to avoid a collapse in public consent. "The debate needs to be taken out of the hands of campaigners and put in the hands of policymakers," it insists. "A realistic voice in the climate debate is required, neither ideological nor alarmist but pragmatic, solutions-driven and outcome-oriented."

With a deeply sceptical eye on the current global architecture and a clear focus on innovation, the report calls for a reset: pragmatic leadership, international technological cooperation and a firm departure from the performative politics of the past.