Uzbekistan’s warehouse real estate market seen growing 50-fold from a low base

By Muzaffar Ismailov in Tashkent October 2, 2023

In the coming years, the volume of warehouse real estate in Uzbekistan may increase by around 50 times from a low base, according to experts cited by Logirus.

The country’s warehouse real estate market currently embraces around 207,000 square metres. At the same time, the vacancy rate exceeds 5%, higher than the rates seen in neighbouring Kazakhstan or Kyrgyzstan.

There is a shortage of high-quality warehouse infrastructure in the country. Thus, only 16% of warehouses are class "A".

The largest warehouse complexes — offered by Bayer Group (14,000 sqm) and Orient Logistics (10,000 sqm) — act as single speculative projects.

Managing partner at IBC Stanislav Akhmedjanov noted that the warehouse market in Uzbekistan was in its infancy, but a favourable geographical location could serve as a driver of growth amid increasing interest in Asian countries.

"Over the past year, demand has increased significantly, but there is practically nothing to satisfy it. The fact is that the number of professional developers in the country is limited. In addition, the standards adopted in the country for warehouse facilities — premises without temperature control and fire extinguishing — are absolutely not suitable for international major market players," the specialist explained.

According to Yulia Tokareva, head of strategic consulting at Commonwealth Partnership, the entry of international companies into the Uzbek market — Fix Price, Merries, Haval, Renault, Magnum, 3m, Arla foods, Bi1 and Wildberries are among arrivals — increased demand for warehouses.

Tokareva emphasised that there was no division of warehouses by class in the local market, and that only those objects that were put into operation after 2017 could be seen as among the most high-quality premises.

The monthly rental rate of a class "B" warehouse in Tashkent is $3-4.6 per metre. For class "A", the client is looking at $6-8. The difference in price is explained by rising costs in construction and land plots.

According to Akhmedjanov, warehouse real estate rentals have risen in price by 10% since the beginning of the year. However, new price jumps are not expected until the end of the year, due to a lack of proposals for locations for development around Tashkent and difficulties in lending and development.

Yet in the next 10-15 years, the experts expect the volume of warehouse real estate in the country will expand by around 50-fold.

The most rapid growth is expected to happen in the years through to 2030, due to the low base and active development of the market. After that, the growth dynamics will slow.

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