Serbia’s sole oil refinery could halt operations within days unless Washington grants a new licence to allow majority Russian-owned NIS to continue processing crude, President Aleksandar Vucic told the public on November 25.

Serbia is awaiting a decision from the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on a licence for operations at the refinery after US sanctions on NIS took effect on October 9 due to the company’s majority Russian ownership. NIS previously said it could process crude only until November 25.

Vucic said that the Pancevo refinery had entered “warm circulation”, a reduced operating mode ahead of a full shutdown. “It’s not shut down yet, but it’s at a lower level of operation. We still have four days until the refinery is completely shut down if the licence is not approved by the US government,” he said in a special address.

Vucic said Belgrade had expected approval but now believes Washington wants “to see more things” before deciding. The sanctions have so far had limited impact on consumers, with no fuel shortages or queues reported at NIS petrol stations, though customers have been required to pay in cash or with local Dina cards.

Energy Minister Dubravka Dedović Handanovic met representatives of MOL, EKO and OMV on November 24 to discuss supply security. The government claimed there was “no reason for concern”, citing adequate petroleum product stocks and incoming deliveries, including 20,000 tonnes of Euro diesel and 38,000 tonnes of gasoline for mandatory state reserves in December and January.

Washington has insisted on a full Russian exit from NIS. Moscow has reportedly agreed to sell its 56.15% stake, currently held by its subsidiaries Gazprom Neft and a St Petersburg-based firm called Intelligence. Vucic said Russia was in talks with three potential buyers; Serbian media have speculated that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and Hungary’s MOL are among those interested.

NIS filed a fresh licence request with OFAC on November 18 seeking permission to maintain normal operations at the Pancevo refinery while negotiations continue.

The uncertainty over the refinery’s future comes as the US, Ukraine and Russia engage in discussions on a new peace framework that could lead to a ceasefire in the nearly four-year-old conflict. Analysts say any link between sanctions relief and a peace deal could complicate Moscow’s willingness to sell its overseas assets.