The media coverage surrounding the US-proposed 28-point peace plan (28PPP) to resolve the Ukrainian conflict is an “informational frenzy,” according to Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov.

"It's impossible to comment on every media report right now. <...> There really is a lot of contradictory information being published, contradictory statements, and so on and so forth. Therefore, we prefer not to engage in megaphone diplomacy," he stated.

Different versions of the list are flying around. Following a meeting in Geneva at the weekend the number of points in the list has been cut from 28 to 19, according to the Financial Times.

According to Oleksandr Bevz, an adviser to the Ukrainian President's office, said after all the changes, the list has effectively lost its relevance and had been significantly amended following the Geneva talks.

Some of the most contentious issues like territory and Ukraine’s Nato aspirations have been removed and will be discussed at a mooted face-to-face meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

However, first there will be a meeting between Zelenskiy and US President Donald Trump to agree on a finalised version of the joint US-European proposal list.

Talks between Russia and US get under way

While the list of proposals has not been finalised, the first meeting between Russia and the US is reportedly underway in Abu Dhabi. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov declined to confirm that Moscow and Washington officials are holding talks in Abu Dhabi.

US Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll arrived on November 24 and is currently talking to a Russian delegation to discuss the shortened version of the American plan.

According to Politico’s sources, the document under discussion excludes the possible transfer of Donbas to Russia – a key Kremlin demand. Politico reports that suggestion is that the most difficult issues can be brought up in separate negotiations between Ukrainian and American leaders Zelenskyy and Trump, after he has gotten the Russian reaction.

Chances of success

The talks between Russia and the US will be difficult. Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s top foreign policy advisor said on November 24. While the original version of the list was “largely in accord’ with an agreement thrashed out between Putin and Trump at the Alaska summit on August 15 and could form the basis of a lasting agreement, many of the new amended demands by the EU were “unacceptable”.

The EU's key "red lines" remain unchanged: Ukraine's borders cannot be "changed by force" and the Ukrainian army must not be constrained by external demands. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the EU has worked out its own 24-point list with the main differences from the US list including:

No limitation on the number of soldiers in the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU);

Ukraine's future Nato membership is not prohibited, and its neutrality is not required;

Ukraine will have the right to deploy Nato forces on its territory;

Security guarantees are to be modeled according to Nato Article 5;

No territorial concessions is a starting condition, but border issues will be discussed after a ceasefire is in place; and

Ukraine will be fully restored and will receive financial compensation using frozen Russian assets.

Almost all of the EU points will likely be unacceptable to the Kremlin.

Europe is keen to keep control over Russia’s $300bn of frozen funds. Originally, the US list proposed depositing $100bn of that money in a Ukraine recovery fund to rebuild the country, with the remainder going into a jointly managed US-Russian investment fund for commercial projects like critical mineral and rare earth metals (REMs) exploitation. However, this point is one of those dropped as the EU intends to use the cash pile to back the so-called Reparation Loans worth €140bn.

Only Europe has the right to dispose of frozen Russian assets, French President Emmanuel Macron told RTL radio on November 25.

“Only Europeans have the right to say <…> what will be done with frozen Russian assets in European hands,” the French leader said.

Putin is going into these talks with an open mind, but is sticking to his hard demands with few concessions. The Russian economy is under increasing pressure and Russia is unlikely to capture much more land, but Putin is also confident of an eventual battlefield victory, so he is willing to continue if he is not offered a suitable deal.

At a Security Council meeting last week, Putin said that Ukraine and its European allies "are still under illusions and dream of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia on the battlefield," but added that Russia remains ready for negotiations and a peaceful resolution of problems.

EU-US tension over the drafting of the list

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was forced to field calls from angry European officials and lawmakers after details of the draft plan for Ukraine were leaked to Axios last week kicking off a media frenzy.

Rubio initially said the Witkoff-Dmitriev plan, named after its reported authors, US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, Kirill Dmitriev, was a “Russian wish list” but later reversed course claiming the US authored the list, using input from both Russia and Ukraine.

"It's based on proposals from the Russian side. But it's also based on previous and current proposals from Ukraine," he said.

Confusion still reigns over who drew the list up, with many pointing the finger at Dmitriev, who had denied being responsible. In a statement on November 24, Axios also denied that Dmitriev was the story's source.

Ukraine’s participation in drawing up the draft 28PPP was confirmed by Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine (NSDC) Rustem Umerov on his Telegram channel, who said that he met with US officials while in the US in recent weeks for consultation.

For example, it has been reported that it was Umerov’s suggestion to set the cap on the size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) at 600,000 men, which would still leave Ukraine with by far the largest army in Europe.

In a related point, von der Leyen list revives the idea of peacekeepers being sent to Ukraine that was initially floated by French President Emmanuel Macron but then quickly dropped as unworkable, only to be revived again. Now the EU is calling for peacekeepers to be enshrined in the new deal, which is almost certainly a deal-killer for the Kremlin. On September 17, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said peacekeepers in Ukraine would become an “occupation force” and become “legitimate targets” for Russian troops.

"We never planned to be on the front lines, but we will deploy reserve forces in reserve areas, for example in Kyiv and Odesa, to conduct training and security operations, as we do in other countries," Macron said in an interview. He also noted that coalition air forces could be based in neighbouring countries. The idea will be discussed further at a meeting of the coalition of the willing due to be held on November 25.

Nevertheless, the Kremlin concedes that Europe has to be involved in the talks. One of the items on the 28PPP list is sanctions relief and as the Trump administration discovered in April when he tried to force his “final offer” deal on Zelenskiy and Europe, which also included significant sanctions relief, that was impossible without Europe’s cooperation as it would need to lift its own sanctions concurrently. At the same time, another point on the list talks about establishing a new post-Cold War pan-European security deal that also needs Europe’s willing cooperation.

"Naturally, discussing a security system in Europe, and talking about security guarantees without security systems as a whole, is probably difficult without the participation of Europeans. Well, practically impossible. At some point, of course, this will be necessary, but right now the only substantive option is the American project, Trump's project," presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, Vedomosti reported.

Peskov reminded that at a Security Council meeting on November 21, Putin said the US plan could form the basis for a final settlement, but said it is not yet being discussed with Moscow.