The UN climate summit in Belém concluded with delegates agreeing to a series of measures aimed at accelerating climate action, but the outcomes fell short of what many scientists and vulnerable countries had hoped for. According to Carbon Brief, which published its in-depth analysis on November 24, the final decisions at COP30 reflect "incremental progress" but also highlight a "growing gap between ambition and implementation".

“Billed as a COP of “truth” and “implementation”, the event – which took place 10 years on from the Paris Agreement – was seen as a moment to showcase international cooperation,” Carbon Brief said. “Yet, the lack of consensus on key issues and rising salience of “unilateral trade measures” and financial shortfalls revealed deep divisions.”

The summit comes at a key time. The Climate Crisis is accelerating. The IPCC says that the Paris Agreement goal of keeping temperature increases to less than 1.5°C-2°C above the pre-industrial benchmark has already been missed and temperature increases are on course to reach a catastrophic 2.7C-3.1C by 2050. At that point extreme temperature events will become routine and large parts of the world will become uninhabitable. Concerted and dramatic action is needed to prevent a global eco-catastrophe and none is being taken.

Held in Brazil’s Amazon region, COP30 was widely viewed as a symbolic opportunity to centre the role of forests, Indigenous communities and nature in climate diplomacy. To avoid the traditional and time-consuming “agenda fight” the Brazilian team told the parties that the presidency would hold consultations on four items some blocs had sought to add to the agenda. These “big four” were on trade measures, climate finance, ambitions to keep global warming to 1.5C and data transparency.

Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva first made his bid to host an “Amazon COP” at COP27 in Egypt in 2022, fresh from an election victory. Speaking in front of a cheering crowd, he laid out a vision for reversing deforestation in Brazil and hosting a rainforest COP in 2025, telling delegates: “I advocate in a very strong way that the conference should be held in the Amazon.”

However the location’s symbolic power was not matched by the political weight of the final agreements.

"The final text includes a recognition of the need to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency improvements by 2030, but crucially avoids any firm commitment to phase out fossil fuels," Carbon Brief reported. This omission is likely to be one of the summit’s biggest failures.

Instead, countries agreed to "transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems" in a manner consistent with net zero targets.

"This language is even weaker than that used at COP28 in Dubai, where countries had at least agreed to ‘transition away from fossil fuels’ without the qualifier,” says Carbon Brief.

Lula used his speech at the event to call for “roadmaps” away from deforestation and fossil fuels – he later repeated this in his speech during COP30’s opening, with a focus on a fossil-fuel roadmap and another to fight deforestation.

COP30 saw countries agree to a new “Global Mutirão” decision, a text calling for a tripling of adaptation finance by 2035 (later than some hoped), a new “Belem mission” to increase collective actions to cut emissions. “Mutirão” is a Portuguese word originating in the Indigenous Tupi-Guarani language that refers to people working together towards a common aim.

The first draft drew immediate condemnation from a group of 82 nations that wanted to see a more ambitious and certain call for a fossil-fuel “roadmap” included in the mutirão.

Among other things, the Global Mutirão includes:

• “Calls for” tripling of adaptation finance by 2035, 5yrs later than earlier draft
• No explicit ref to fossil fuels or roadmaps…
• …but ties “implementation accelerator” to “UAE consensus”
• “Accelerator” to report to COP31
• “Calls on” parties to “full implementation of NDCs while striving to do better”
• “Reiterates resolve” to pursue efforts to 1.5°C and to minimise overshoot
• “Emphasises” importance of “halting and reversing deforestation by 2030”, but no roadmap
• “Reaffirms” unilateral trade measures “should not” discriminate arbitrarily
• 3x trade dialogues
• Presidency-led “Belém Mission 1.5°C for NDC/adaptation ambition, reporting to COP31
• Ministerial roundtable on $300bn finance goal
• Two-year work prog on finance around Article 9 “as a whole”
• “Recognises…best available science…as provided by the IPCC”

One of the biggest negotiated outcomes at COP30 concerned efforts to adapt to the impacts of climate change, with Corrêa do Lago dubbing it the “COP of adaptation”. The key “global mutirão” decision at the talks “calls on” countries to triple adaptation finance by 2035. In 2021, a target to double adaptation finance to $40bn by 2025 was agreed at COP26 in Glasgow, UK. However, a recent report from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) found that, in 2023, developed nations provided just $26bn in adaptation finance to developing nations.

The key global mutirão decision at COP30 aims to keep the limit of 1.5°C “within reach”, but says that the “carbon budget” for this is “now small and being rapidly depleted”. For the first time in a COP text, it also acknowledges that there is likely to be an “overshoot” of 1.5°C, saying that both the extent and duration of this needs to be “limit[ed]”.

These measures fall well short of the outcomes that had been demanded by the EU and small-island states among others. Pointedly, the decision does not mention fossil fuels at all, or a roadmap to transition away from their use.

 

On finance, negotiators reaffirmed their support for a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) to replace the $100bn per year pledge first made in 2009. However, there was little clarity on the size or structure of the new funding target. "The text does not specify a number, nor how much should come from public versus private sources," Carbon Brief wrote.

A key outcome from Belém was the formal launch of the Loss and Damage Fund, initially agreed at COP27. Carbon Brief described the activation of the fund as "a major diplomatic win for vulnerable countries," though it added that "initial pledges remain small relative to the scale of need".

The summit also saw parties agree on the first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement, a process intended to measure progress against global climate goals. According to Carbon Brief, "the stocktake clearly shows the world is off track to limit warming to 1.5°C", but the language used in the decision text "stopped short of mandating stronger national targets".

Looking ahead to COP31 in Turkey, Carbon Brief noted that the path forward would likely depend on political will and shifting geopolitical dynamics.

"The outcomes in Belém underline how far there is to go—not only in setting targets, but in delivering on them,” concluded Carbon Brief.