On September 27, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that his country received a Patriot air defence system from Israel, providing clarity on a development that had stirred much media speculation, yet until then, there was no confirmation.

“The Israeli system is operating in Ukraine for a month,” Zelensky confirmed, as quoted by The Times of Israel. “We will receive [another] two Patriot systems in the fall, that’s all I’m going to say.”

Three months prior, Israel’s ambassador to Ukraine, Michael Brodsky, confirmed that Patriot missiles had been transferred to Ukraine, although the Israeli Foreign Ministry denied this claim. Prior to Brodsky’s statement, The New York Times reported that the Trump administration instructed Israel to transfer an outdated Patriot battery to the United States for refurbishment, after which the air defence system would be supplied to Ukraine.

Last year, the Financial Times reported that the US, Israel, and Ukraine were negotiating the transfer of eight Patriot M901 PAC-2 batteries from Israel to Ukraine, to assist the Zelensky administration in its defence against Russian incursions.

While the move may seem to indicate Israel’s solidarity with Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression, deeper analysis suggests that this move could form part of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s greater geopolitical plan, following what has been a gruelling Middle East conflict.

Three layers of geopolitics must be considered to understand Netanyahu’s deeper agenda.

Following the October 7, 2023, onslaught on Israel by Hamas, Israel embarked on a widespread military campaign, understandably resulting in increased military and defence spending. While the initial conflict was limited to the Islamic militia in the Gaza Strip, the conflict later extended to Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and the Iranian regime.

By the end of 2024, Israel’s Finance Ministry confirmed that the country spent approximately NIS 100bn ($28bn) on military activities for the year. This is before the 12-day war with Iran even began. As a result of this spending increase, Israel’s debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 69% in 2024 from 61.3% in 2023, while also leading to a budget deficit 6.9% in 2024 ­­— the highest deficit that Israel faced since the Covid pandemic, according to government figures.

With war expenditure crippling the Israeli economy, the country appears to be in desperate need of some lucrative trade deals to turn its financial fortunes around. This, reluctantly, as some have warned, is where Ukraine comes in.

While it appears that Israel’s transfer of Patriot missiles to Ukraine may come in the form of military aid rather than a business deal, it could pave the way to increased trade with Ukraine should the defence systems work in Zelensky’s favour, but the peril of irking Russia and 15% of Israel's population, which originates in the former Soviet Union and Russia.

As pressure to end the Gaza conflict simmers with an agreement close to happening, Israel’s defence contracts with traditional partners are in the doldrums. Spain has engaged in an arms embargo against the Jewish state, with Hebrew financial newspaper Globes reporting that Spain cancelled a $207mn deal for the Rafael Advanced Defence Systems Litening 5 system as a result.

In Latin America, Chile signed a memorandum of understanding with Brazil to strengthen defence cooperation. This came after Chilean President Gabriel Boric expressed intentions to diversify the country's defence trade relations, specifically seeking to reduce dependence on Israeli military suppliers as a means of protest.

The decision to arm Ukraine could form part of a plan by Netanyahu to foster defence deals with new or emerging partners as certain established trade partners take a step back.

Russia has been a pivotal trade partner for Iran, with trade between the two countries surging by 35% in May and June 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.

More importantly, Russia is Iran’s biggest arms supplier, with data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute showing that Russia supplied 98% of Iran’s arms imports between 2015 and 2019, before becoming Iran’s sole international weapons supplier for the period of 2020 to 2024.

According to The Jamestown Foundation, however, Russian arms exports tanked by 92% from 2021 to 2024, with the redirection of resources to the Ukraine front being named as a defining factor.

It thus makes sense for Israel to arm Ukraine in its fight against Russia, as the more ground that Zelensky’s administration gains in the conflict, the more resources Russia will need to divert to this war, limiting the outflow of arms to Iran.

By limiting Iran’s weapons inflows, Israel could potentially restrict the weapons reserves of Iranian proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, indirectly advancing its own security efforts across the region.

The Trump administration has occasionally backtracked from former US President Biden’s unequivocal support for Ukraine, making for a confusing stance on the conflict.

In August, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon has been preventing Ukraine from using American-supplied long-range missiles to hit targets inside Russia. This comes despite US President Donald Trump’s repeated calls on Truth Social for Kyiv to go on the offensive, even claiming that Ukraine would be unable to avoid defeat without attacking “an invader’s country.”

Nevertheless, if reports claiming that the US brokered the transfer of Patriot missiles from Israel to Ukraine are correct, then Netanyahu would surely look to satisfy President Trump’s demands as a means of maintaining the US-Israel alliance.

Israel’s international alliances appear to be waning, with the UK, Australia, and Canada recognising a Palestinian state while ramping up pressure on Netanyahu’s administration to seek a ceasefire. The US was one of just 10 countries that opposed the UN General Assembly's "New York Declaration" supporting a two-state solution. Trump is also looking to ramp up pressure on Netanyahu to bring an end to the war.

With both Gaza and Ukraine at the forefront of the United States’ foreign policy agenda, Netanyahu may be looking to reinforce his government’s support for Trump’s stances on both issues as a means of sustaining one of its few unwavering and influential partnerships, and if this could mean proving loyalty by arming Ukraine.