Rising fossil fuel prices following the US-Israel war with Iran will push up Turkey’s oil import costs by $7.7bn and add $6.4bn to the country’s gas import bill by the end of 2026, according to a June 12 report from energy think tank Ember.

Said Ember: “Between 28 February [the date on which the war ignited] and 1 May 2026, Brent crude oil prices surged by 50%. European gas prices rose by 45%, and coal prices increased by 3%. This has translated directly into a higher energy import bill for Türkiye in 2026, given the country’s heavy dependence on fossil fuels.

“Indeed, net energy imports in March, April and May – the first months in which the impact of the war was felt – increased by around $3 billion compared with the same period the previous year, representing a 26% rise.”

Ember added that if fossil fuel prices remained at the level they were at on May 1, Turkey’s energy import bill could increase by $14bn from March to the end of the year.

“This increase,” it said, “corresponds to roughly 30% of the annual import bill, with around $8 billion of the additional cost stemming from oil and more than $6 billion from gas imports.”

Roughly 20% of global oil supply and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This energy corridor “chokepoint” remains subject to US and Iran blockading while talks continue in the search for a peace deal.

Oil and gas poor Turkey has in the last 10 years, paid an average of $42bn per year for net energy imports, according to Ember. 

In 2022, the figure exceeded $80bn amid the Russia-Ukraine war, it added.

“While two-thirds of Türkiye’s energy needs are met by imported fossil fuels, its source-based import rates stand at 95% for natural gas, 83% for crude oil and 60% for coal,” Ember, which focuses on the transition to clean energy, also advised in its report.

It also said: “The largest share of the energy bill comes not from electricity generation, but from sectors that rely directly on fossil fuels. In 2025, road transport alone accounted for one-third of the total bill, while industry, households and power generation each represented roughly 16%.”

Separately, Turkey’s current account posted a deficit of $5.70bn in April, with the official shortfall recorded as the smallest since November 2025. The gap narrowed from a deficit of $8.45bn in April 2025.

The goods account deficit shrank to $6.82bn from $9.89bn a year ago, while the primary income gap was recorded at $2.40bn versus $2.38bn 12 months previously.

Excluding gold and energy, the current account showed a surplus of $0.32bn.

For 4M26, Turkey posted an official current account deficit of $29.37bn, up from $22.59bn in 4M25.