Turkey’s retail sales growth falls to 17-month low of 3.1% y/y in July

Turkey’s retail sales growth falls to 17-month low of 3.1% y/y in July
By bne IntelliNews September 18, 2018

Turkey's calendar-adjusted retail sales volume index rose by 3.1% y/y in July, marking the lowest annual growth recorded since February 2017, national statistics office TUIK reported on September 17.

Consumers are tightening their belts with the country mired in a currency crisis, wary of sliding into a debt crisis, buffeted by rising double-digit inflation and threatened by a likely steep recession in months ahead.

Monthly annual retail sales growth rates in the year to date peaked at 10.8% in January, then slowed in the following two months before moving up to 8.3% in April. Retail sales growth subsequently declined sharply in the following three months.

Turkey’s average annual retail sales growth jumped to 5.5% in 2017 from 2.3% in 2016, according to the TUIK’s revised index. Based on the old series, year on year retail sales growth very slightly escalated from 0.8% in 2016—the lowest annual rise ever—to 1% in 2017.

Real private consumption growth declined to 6.3% y/y in Q2 from 9.3% in Q1 while private consumption’s share in Turkey’s overall GDP based on current prices also declined to 59% from 60.3%, according to the latest GDP data. Real private consumption growth was 6.1% in 2017 and private consumption’s share in overall GDP was 59%.

Average monthly annual retail sales growth declined to 6% in Q2 from 8.9% in Q1 2018, according to TUIK’s retail sales data.

Turkey’s economic confidence index declined by 9% m/m to 83.9 in August, the lowest level seen since March 2009, data from national statistics office TUIK showed on August 29.

The retail confidence index declined by 4% m/m to 93.4 in the month.

A sharp decline in Turkey's consumer sentiment reading measured at 7% m/m was seen in August. The index figure of 68.3 is the lowest level recorded since October last year, according to TUIK data released on August 17.