Turkey’s official gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 3.7% y/y in 3Q25, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK, or TurkStat), said on December 1.

The 1Q and 2Q outcomes were, meanwhile, revised up to 2.5% and 4.9%, respectively.

It is not advisable to plan, price or draw inferences based on TUIK data. There is widespread concern about the reliability of Turkey’s official data series.

On a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis, TUIK’s GDP series showed growth of 1.1% q/q in 3Q following 1.6% in 2Q.

On course for around 3.5% for 2025

In September, Turkey’s government cut its official GDP growth target for 2025 to 3.3% y/y in its new medium-term economic programme (OVP) from the 4% pencilled in a year earlier in the previous programme.

The 2026 target now stands at 3.8%.

In response to the 3Q release, finance minister Mehmet Simsek said on December 1 in a press release that Turkey is set to release the 2025 figure a little above the OVP target.

The 2026 figure is, meanwhile, expected to attain the higher level, as provided in the OVP, Simsek also noted.

Nicholas Farr at Capital Economics said in a note to investors: "The slowdown in Turkish GDP growth in Q3, to 1.1% q/q, still leaves the economy running relatively hot. But the positive contribution from net exports suggests that policymakers’ efforts to rebalance the economy are bearing fruit. Provided that CPI data on Wednesday shows another fall in inflation, we expect the CBRT [central bank] to deliver a 100bp interest rate cut at its meeting next week."