Russian infantry units have breached Ukrainian defensive lines and entered the key eastern logistics hub of Pokrovsk, sparking intense street fighting and threatening to encircle Ukrainian forces who have been fighting to repel the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) for eight months, according to military sources and battlefield reports published on October 30.

“The situation in Pokrovsk is on the verge of critical and continues to deteriorate.” Military spokesman Hrihory Shapoval, representing Ukraine’s Operational Command East, acknowledged Russian advances into Myrnohrad, a neighbouring town, the Kyiv Post reports. “They also use artillery and unmanned systems, and infantry and technical means. Therefore, it is becoming very difficult now,” he said.

Military journalist Vasyl Pekhno, citing contacts in Pokrovsk, described the situation as “dire.”

“The situation in Pokrovsk is critical. Enemy [drone] pilots are already operating within the city limits... If we do not block the enemy’s infiltration – we will lose Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and along with this there will be large losses of soldiers,” he said as cited by the Kyiv Post.

Ukrainska Pravda reports at least 250 Russian troops are in Pokrovsk and are engaging in firefights and killing Ukrainian soldiers, particularly drone operators, at their positions. Logistics into the city are fully controlled by Russian drones, forcing Ukrainian soldiers to walk 10-15 km to reach their positions, Ukrainska Pravda reports.

“The situation is beyond critical,” said leading military analyst Rob Lee, a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, in a social media post.

“Two officers from a brigade defending the city confirmed that Russian troops have been shooting and killing Ukrainian UAV operators and engaging artillery and anti-tank units in direct combat inside the city,” said Lee.

Russia claims encirclement

As bne IntelliNews reported, Russia's chief of the general staff Valery Gerasimov triumphantly reported to President Vladimir Putin this week that the city, which supplies the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) frontline in the Donbas, has almost been surrounded. He issued the AFU an ultimatum: lay down your arms or be destroyed.

"Leave the Pokrovsk agglomeration by Monday, October 27. If you refuse, the encircled Ukrainian Armed Forces units will be destroyed," Gerasimov said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy denied the city was surrounded on October 30, but admitted fighting was intense. Russian President Vladimir Putin responded saying that he would halt the fighting and invite foreign journalists to the frontline to prove the salient containing the city was nearly cut off.

Russian troops inside Pokrovsk

In the last 24 hours Ukrainian press and military bloggers (milbloggers) are reporting that the Russian soldiers inside the city are now hunting down AFU forces, paying particular attention to UAV operators.

One report described a “catastrophic” lack of personnel amongst the Ukrainian defenders and that some defensive positions were defended “on the maps only” after AFU forces retreated or were destroyed, says Lee.

“Ukrainian defenders are facing a catastrophic shortage of infantry,” says Lee.

At least 200 Russian troops, armed with automatic weapons, machine guns, and rocket-propelled grenades, have been reported operating freely in the southern districts of the city, the Kyiv Post reports, with Ukrainian forces still holding the central and northern areas. The situation remains fluid and confused, with drones heavily active and the presence of civilians complicating operations.

According to military assessments, Russian infantry infiltrated on foot, bypassing Ukrainian lines over a 10–15km approach. As bne IntelliNews reported, AFR are taking advantage of the kilometre-long holes in the defences already caused by Kyiv’s flagging recruitment campaign and growing desertion rate that are currently being plugged by increased drone defences.

Supply lines under pressure

Russia has been targeting the city since the spring of this year which has become the epicentre of the war. It came close to falling in July, until Bankova reinforced the defence with fresh elite troops that pushed the advancing AFR back. However, the AFR has been making slow but steady gains after relaunching the offensive in August and re-entered the city.

Ukrainian troops are still holding positions south of Pokrovsk, although communication with them is minimal. Some of these positions are located between Russian lines, Ukrainska Pravda reports.

The AFR has been capturing villages surrounding the city in an attempt to encircle it, albeit at enormous cost: Ukraine’s Defence Ministry reports that Russia is losing some 1,000 men a day in the clash.

The fight for Pokrovsk is similar to the battles for Avdiivka and Bakhmut, which also went on for months, saw huge casualties on both sides, but were both eventually taken by Russia.

“The enemy has transferred everyone they could [to Pokrovsk] from other sectors,” said Kyrylo Sazonov, an officer in the 41st Mechanized Infantry Brigade, the Kyiv Post reports. “Now there’s real hell in Pokrovsk... In fact, these are full-fledged urban battles.”

Milblogger DeepState confirmed Russian control of Pokrovsk’s southern districts and partial Ukrainian control in central and northern areas. Its battlefield maps indicated Russian forces had advanced within machine gun range of the last western supply road, placing the city under effective encirclement. Russian drones are also attacking supply lines as far as 20km into the rear of the city in Ukraine-controlled territory.

“The biggest problem is logistics. You can drive part of the road, but then you have to walk 10-15 km, carrying ammo, drones and supplies. The entire route is under FPV drone surveillance via fibre optics. There are many loitering drones and remote-mined areas where soldiers are killed every day. The ground-based robotic systems arrived too late,” one AFU officer told Ukrainska Pravda.

DeepState confirmed the growing severity of the logistics problems, with the blockage of the key supply route from Pavlohrad to Pokrovsk, which lies about 90km to the northwest in the Dnipropetrovsk region in Ukrainian held territory -- a critical corridor for moving troops, equipment, and supplies from central Ukraine to the eastern front.

The worsening situation in Pokrovsk also affects its satellite town, Myrnohrad, another key Ukrainian logistics hub. Supplies to Myrnohrad go through Pokrovsk via a 20-km supply route.

A second senior AFU officer told Ukrainska Pravda: "Things are unfolding according to the worst scenario. Pokrovsk is collapsing too fast; we didn't expect this. There are some of those b*****ds in northern Myrnohrad, small groups infiltrating from the south, but overall it's still better than in Pokrovsk. But if Pokrovsk falls, there'll be no way out for the Myrnohrad units.”

Tide turning to AFR’s advantage

The fall of Avdiivka in February 2024, which lies some 60km to the east of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, was significant as it broke the stalemate that developed following the failure of the AFU’s summer offensive the year before and gave the Russian forces the initiative.

However, the potential fall of Pokrovsk is potentially more damaging as it lies at the nexus of several important road and rail links that supplies the defensive lines for the whole of the Donbas region and is also the last significant defensible town in eastern Ukraine before open country that runs all the way to the Dnipro River that cuts the country in half – including the Fortified Line in Donetsk, built up over the last year by the AFU that is a formidable defensive line.

In his talks with US President Donald Trump in the last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been insisting that Zelenskiy withdraw from the whole of Donetsk, which the AFR does not fully control, including these fortifications. Bankova has refused, arguing that it would leave the whole of eastern Ukraine at Russia’s mercy.

While it remains unclear who has the advantage, the fighting is clearly intense. Ukrainian General Oleksandr Syrsky, commander of Ukrainian forces, visited the sector on October 25, and instructed units to focus on countering drones, enemy artillery, and isolated sabotage groups.

According to an October 27 statement by the AFU, Russian losses in the Pokrovsk sector over nearly three months totalled more than 17,000 soldiers killed, with 190 taken prisoner, although there is no independent confirmation of these numbers.

“The situation in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad has been deteriorating for months and is now critical. Russian forces maintain air superiority – FPV drones constantly patrol the roads, waiting for vehicles, making logistics for Ukrainian units nearly impossible,” Ukrainska Pravda commented. “Both Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad have been encircled by Russian drones for months, and by late October, risk full encirclement on the ground.”