Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic and his ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) are on track to lose the next parliamentary elections, according to the latest polling conducted by Sprint Insight and obtained by bne IntelliNews.

The survey, carried out between June 23 and July 5 with 1,458 respondents, reveals widespread dissatisfaction with the current government. More than half of those surveyed (53.5%) believe Serbia is moving in the wrong direction, while just 33.5% expressed optimism about the country’s future.

The poll indicates a growing appetite for change, with 54.8% of respondents supporting the “student list” — a coalition comprising professors, workers, farmers, experts and students — compared to 42.1% backing Vucic’s coalition, which includes the SNS, the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) and the far-right Zavetnici.

Vucic, who has dominated Serbian politics for 12 years and often relied on snap elections to renew his mandate, appears to be losing his grip amid rising public discontent. The ruling party is confronting its most serious challenge to date amid ongoing student-led protests sparked by a fatal accident in November 2024. A concrete canopy collapse at Novi Sad railway station killed 16 people, triggering widespread demonstrations against corruption.

The tragedy led to the resignation of prime minister Milos Vucevic in January 2025, and a cosmetic cabinet reshuffle, but unrest has persisted. While protests were mostly peaceful during the early part of 2025, clashes between demonstrators and police have grown common since late June, escalating tensions nationwide.

According to the poll, 42.3% of respondents outright reject the current government, with only 26.8% expressing full support. Trust in Vucic has eroded: nearly 40% said they never trusted him, and an additional 12% reported losing trust in recent months.

Corruption and mismanagement of public funds were cited by 30.7% as key drivers of the recent slowdown in growth, while 16.4% blamed the deceleration on the ongoing student blockades and civil unrest. Economic hardship remains acute, with over 11% describing their living conditions as “very hard” and nearly half saying they are just managing to get by.

Public confidence in institutions is low, with only the church and military maintaining moderate trust levels. More than half (52.6%) believe the government failed to act responsibly following the Novi Sad tragedy.

The call for extraordinary parliamentary elections, championed by student protest leaders since May, has garnered significant support: 33.1% of respondents fully back the demand, with another 18.2% mostly supportive.

The political landscape is fragile, with the potential for further unrest and unpredictable developments. Vucic may soon cave into pressure to call snap elections to salvage his political standing, risking an end to SNS’s long-standing dominance if the student-led opposition unites around a credible alternative.

Despite political turmoil, nearly half of those surveyed (46.9%) still favour democracy over other systems, although almost a quarter expressed openness to a “firm hand” in certain situations.

Serbia’s geopolitical orientation remains divided: 16.7% prefer alignment with China and Russia, 28.5% support a non-aligned stance closer to the East, 18.5% favour closer ties with the West and 25.3% remain undecided.