Second exit poll strengthens Polish opposition’s odds for ousting PiS

By bne IntelliNews October 16, 2023

Poland’s ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party scooped the most votes in the election held on October 15 but appears unlikely to build a majority in the new parliament, a so-called late poll showed on October 16.

PiS won 36.6% in the late poll, ahead of the centre-right Civic Coalition headed by former PM and European Council President Donald Tusk at 31%.

Key to the likely reshaping of Poland’s political landscape was the centrist Third Way coming in at 13.5% and the poor showing of the far-right grouping Confederation – touted as the only possible coalition partner of PiS - at just 6.4%.

The Left won 8.6%, according to the late poll. Civic Coalition, the Third Way, and the Left appear likely to have a combined 248 seats in the 460-seat Sejm, the lower house of the Polish parliament, clearly above the minimum 231 required for a majority.

Poles turned out massively at the polling stations, with voting in some –  apparently ill-prepared points – finishing around 3 am.

The overall turnout was 72.9%, more than 11pp than in 2019.

The official results of the vote are expected on October 17.

The next move belongs to President Andrzej Duda who will nominate a prime minister after the new parliament convenes for the first time – likely next month.

The president is free in his choice and had hinted that he would offer a PiS candidate the first go at piecing together a majority. PiS officials have refrained from conceding a de facto defeat.


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