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Czech PMI deteriorates in April
5 hours ago
The current account surplus of Russia’s balance of payments in January 2024 improved notably to $6.4bn from $0.7bn seen in December 2023, according to the preliminary estimates of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR). (chart)
As followed by bne IntelliNews, in 2023 the CA surplus declined by 79% year on year, or by $188bn to $50bn.
However, trade in goods and services indicators “were generally close to seasonal norms” in January 2024, according to the analysts of Rosbank, with $32.6bn in exports ($33.7bn average for 2017-2021), and $24.5bn in imports (with the 2017-2021 average at $22.6bn).
The financial account data shows an accumulation of assets ($3.3bn) and repayment of liabilities ($0.6bn).
“However, the [financial account] numbers are clearly understated, given the
the jump in errors and omissions estimates ($3.4bn),” Rosbank analysts warn, suggesting that errors and omissions could stand for "grey" capital outflows.
Overall, Rosbank believes that January’s CA surplus is “fundamentally positive” for the ruble. “The normalisation of the current account surplus was due to the exhaustion of seasonal factors in December, consisting in the growth of imports of services (primarily tourism) and the announcement of dividends by Russian companies,” Renaissance Capital commented.
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Data
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Czech PMI deteriorates in April
S&P highlighted stronger contractions in production and weak client demand amid the burdens of the difficult manufacturing environment, which was also pressured by waning external demand.
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Czech GDP grew by 0.4% y/y in the Q1 2024
The estimate released by the Czech Statistical Office follows a GDP drop of 0.8% in the third quarter of 2023 and a growth of 0.4% in Q4. Following the revision released by CZSO in late March, the Czech economy declined by 0.2% in 2023 overall.
Polish CPI picks up growth to 2.4% y/y in April, flash estimate shows
Polish CPI grew 2.4% year on year in April (chart), just below the consensus line of 2.5% y/y and 0.4pp above the March reading, a flash estimate from Poland’s statistical office GUS showed on April 30.
Preliminary Q1 GDP data shows Hungarian economy posts modest rebound
GDP grew 1.1% year on year in Q1 and by 1.7% when adjusted for calendar effects.
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