Bank of Japan lifts rates 25 basis points to 31-year high
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Romania's industrial output (chart) declined by 3.0% y/y in April, after contracting by an average 1.9% y/y in the first quarter, according to data published by the statistics office INS. The outlook remains mixed, allowing expectations for positive growth in the full year.
The downturn was more pronounced in the core manufacturing sector, where output fell by 4.0% y/y in April following a 3.4% y/y decline in the first three months of the year.
By contrast, the utilities sector continued to perform better, with electricity and natural gas production and distribution rising by 3.3% y/y in April and by 6.5% y/y in the first quarter. However, the sector remains in recovery mode and its expansion largely reflects low base effects. In seasonally adjusted terms, utilities activity in April stood at only 84.8% of the 2021 average, compared with 97.5% for manufacturing (95.9% for the total industry).
The mining sector posted a 0.9% y/y decline in April. Its seasonally adjusted output amounted to 96.2% of the 2021 average.
On a monthly basis, seasonally adjusted industrial production increased by 1.5% m/m in April, following a 0.4% m/m gain in March. The rebound was driven mainly by the resumption of operations at the Petromidia refinery and marked a cumulative 1.9% recovery from February, when Romania recorded its weakest post-pandemic industrial performance.
Despite the monthly recovery, the outlook for the sector remains challenging. Analysts at Erste Group still expect a slight improvement this year after three consecutive years of contraction. “Early-year developments indicate that downside risks have increased, but the trend in the last two months looks promising,” a research note by the Austrian group reads.
The rolling 12-month industrial output indicator turned positive in April 2026 for the first time since December 2022, showing growth of 0.2% y/y. However, the indicator remained negative at 0.3% y/y for the manufacturing sector.
Romania's state forecasting body CNP said in its updated projections released in May that industrial production is expected to contract by 0.5% in 2026, before returning to growth of 1.7% in 2027.
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