Polish retail sales expanded 4.1% year on year at constant prices in April (chart), after growing 6% y/y the preceding month, the statistics office GUS said on April 23.

The reading landed below the consensus line, which projected an expansion of 5.2% y/y. Analysts say, however, that the negative surprise is not concerning.

“With a solid increase in real incomes and consumer sentiment still good … strengthening retail sales in the coming months seems certain,” PKO BP said in a comment.

“Much lower inflation than a year ago, a strong increase in nominal wages, and a favourable labor market situation encourage consumer spending,” PKO BP also said.

In effect, consumption is expected to drive Polish economic growth in 2024 to 3%-4% after an expansion of just 0.2% last year.

Four out of eight main retail segments managed an annual expansion in April, GUS showed in the breakdown of the data.

Sales of cars and car parts jumped 33.8% y/y in the fourth month, compared to a gain of 13.5% y/y in March. Fuel sales improved slightly to 11.9% y/y (+11.2% y/y the preceding month). 

Sales of food, drinks and tobacco products declined 6.8% y/y in April after a gain of 6.6% y/y in March. 

In the pharmaceuticals and cosmetics segment, sales maintained their growth rate of 6.4% y/y in April.

Sales of textiles, clothing and footwear retreated 15.8% y/y in April, following a slide of 15.2% y/y in March.

Sales of furniture, audio and video equipment and domestic appliances slid 3.3% y/y in April after falling 8.5% y/y the preceding month.

Sales declined 1.8% month on month at constant prices in April after the March gain of 14.2% m/m, GUS data also showed.

In current prices, retail turnover expanded 4.3% y/y in April, easing 1.7pp in comparison to the March reading. In m/m terms there was a fall of 0.9% (+14.6% m/m the preceding month).

Retail turnover declined 3.5% m/m in April following seasonal adjustment, after falling of 0.2% m/m in March, GUS data also showed.