Polish CPI growth stabilises at 15.5% y/y in July but peak still ahead, analysts say

Polish CPI growth stabilises at 15.5% y/y in July but peak still ahead, analysts say
By Wojciech Kosc in Warsaw August 1, 2022

Polish CPI inflation stayed at 15.5% y/y in July, the first time since February when the annual reading did not accelerate, the statistical office GUS said in a flash estimate on July 29 (chart).

The reading is in line with consensus and could be a signal that inflation tide is finally easing in Poland, as consumer demand is weakening after a 10-month streak of interest rate hikes by the National Bank of Poland (NBP). The easing of oil price growth also helped, analysts point out.

“Inflation remains very high, although the July reading, as well as commodity prices on international markets, point to an ever closer peak, which will be slightly higher than the July figure,” Bank Millennium said in a note.

It is too early, however, to say with certainty that Poland’s inflation problems are over, Bank Millennium added.

A number of caveats still apply, including uncertainty as to the prices of energy and heating fuels – gas in particular – ahead of the cold season. A global economic slowdown could offset that to an extent via possible easing of fuel prices.

The NBP will certainly take note of the flash CPI reading and could end the long tightening cycle with one more hike of 50bp in September, analysts say. That would take the reference interest rate to 7%.

NBP Governor Adam Glapinski was recently caught on camera, responding to a question from a woman who happened to meet him in Sopot, a holiday resort on the Polish seaside.

“We currently have the highest interest rates and the highest inflation,” holiday-mode Glapinski told the woman in unusual circumstances for making a statement on monetary policy.

“If there is going to be one more [rate increase] it’ll only be of 0.25 [of a percentage point],” Glapinski added. 

The increase in the inflation rate came on the back of growth in all major components, GUS showed in the breakdown of the data. 

Food prices grew 15.3% y/y in July, the flash estimate said – a pick up against a gain of 14.2% y/y in June.

Elsewhere, energy prices went up 36.6% y/y in July after growing 35.1% y/y the preceding month. Fuel prices eased growth to 36.8% y/y in the seventh month after an increase of 46.7% y/y in June.

Core inflation remained at around 9.1%-9.2% y/y in July, analysts estimate.

In monthly terms, the CPI increased 0.4% in July, the expansion easing 1.1pp versus the preceding month.

Prices of food and non-alcoholic drinks eased growth by 0.1pp to 0.6% m/m in July, while in the energy segment, growth eased 1.7pp to 1.3% m/m. Fuel prices decreased 2.6% m/m in July after shooting up 9.4% m/m the preceding month.

Read in IntelliNews Pro
Get IntelliNews Pro

Related Content

International banking groups mull expansion in CEE region

JPMorgan EM Debt Fund buys in $2mn of Turk Eximbank’s eurobond due 2027

Slovak cabinet approves new levy on banks to cut budget deficit

Data

BOFIT: Russian inflationary pressures on the rise

Russia’s strong growth, driven by heavy military spending, has created growing inflationary pressure as the economy starts to overheat, the Bank of Finland institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) says in its weekly update.

Putin's trust rating holds steady at 78.5% in latest poll

In the most recent poll conducted by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM), President Vladimir Putin's trust rating remained steady at 78.5%.

Dragon Capital halves Ukraine’s 2024 GDP forecast to 4% in anticipation of another year of war

Ukraine’s leading investment bank Dragon Capital has cut its GDP forecast for Ukraine in 2024 in half to 4% y/y in anticipation of another year of war, The New Voice of Ukraine reported on December 7.

Czech industry increased by 1.9% y/y in October

Czech industrial production increased by 1.9% year on year and by 2.8% month on month in October. The October increase follows a 5% slump registered in September, which alarmed local analysts.

Turkey’s net reserves recover to minus $57bn

Since 2018, economy has carried risk of severe balance of payments crisis. For the removal of that risk, the central bank’s net in and off-balance sheet FX position should at least turn positive.

BOFIT: Russian inflationary pressures on the rise
15 hours ago
Putin's trust rating holds steady at 78.5% in latest poll
17 hours ago
Dragon Capital halves Ukraine’s 2024 GDP forecast to 4% in anticipation of another year of war
19 hours ago
Czech industry increased by 1.9% y/y in October
20 hours ago
Turkey’s net reserves recover to minus $57bn
1 day ago

Follow Us On

Most Read

  1. Putin's approval rating up to 85% in November, Russians happy with the country's direction
    5 days ago
  2. Oil continues to flow to Israel via Turkey despite Erdogan’s vehement speeches on plight of Gaza
    1 month ago
  3. LONG READ: The boomerang effect: sanctions hurt Europe more than Russia
    7 days ago
  4. Former Kazakh leader Nazarbayev confesses to polygamy with Miss Kazakhstan 1999
    3 days ago
  5. Top Ukrainian politician David Arakhamia gives seventh confirmation of Russia-Ukraine peace deal agreed in March 2022
    12 days ago
  1. Oil continues to flow to Israel via Turkey despite Erdogan’s vehement speeches on plight of Gaza
    1 month ago
  2. Top Ukrainian politician David Arakhamia gives seventh confirmation of Russia-Ukraine peace deal agreed in March 2022
    12 days ago
  3. Russia overtakes Germany to become fifth biggest economy in the world in GDP on a PPP basis
    4 months ago
  4. Armenia marks new era with French military purchases
    10 days ago
  5. Lavrov confirms Ukraine war peace deal reached last April, but then abandoned
    2 months ago

Reports

SELECT `n`.`nid` AS `id`, `n`.`title`, 'bne IntelliNews' AS authors, 'bne IntelliNews' AS bylines, `wc`.`field_website_callout_value` AS `summary`, `smc`.`field_social_media_callout_value` AS `social`, `pd`.`published_at` AS `date`, `p`.`field_publication__tid` AS `publication_id`, `fm`.`uri` AS `image`, `fspcaption`.`field_story_photo_caption_value` AS `image_credit`, `fspcredit`.`field_story_photo_credit_value` AS `image_author`, `ws`.`field_website_sections_tid` AS `section_id`, `fdfs`.`field_subject_tid` AS `subject_id`, `db`.`body_value` AS `body`, `fm2`.`uri` AS `pdf`, `et`.`field_enable_tracking_value` AS `tracking`, `ht`.`field_head_tags_value` AS `headTags`, `bt`.`field_body_tags_value` AS `bodyTags` FROM `node` AS `n` LEFT JOIN `field_data_field_website_callout` AS `wc` ON wc.entity_id = n.nid LEFT JOIN `field_data_field_social_media_callout` AS `smc` ON smc.entity_id = n.nid LEFT JOIN `publication_date` AS `pd` ON pd.nid = n.nid LEFT JOIN `field_data_field_publication_` AS `p` ON p.entity_id = n.nid LEFT JOIN `field_data_field_story_picture` AS `sp` ON sp.entity_id = n.nid LEFT JOIN `file_managed` AS `fm` ON fm.fid = sp.field_story_picture_fid LEFT JOIN `field_data_field_story_photo_caption` AS `fspcaption` ON fspcaption.entity_id = n.nid LEFT JOIN `field_data_field_story_photo_credit` AS `fspcredit` ON fspcredit.entity_id = n.nid LEFT JOIN `workflow_node` AS `wn` ON wn.nid = n.nid LEFT JOIN `field_data_field_website_sections` AS `ws` ON ws.entity_id = n.nid LEFT JOIN `field_data_field_subject` AS `fdfs` ON fdfs.entity_id = n.nid LEFT JOIN `field_data_body` AS `db` ON db.entity_id = n.nid LEFT JOIN `field_data_field_file` AS `ff` ON ff.entity_id = n.nid LEFT JOIN `file_managed` AS `fm2` ON fm2.fid = ff.field_file_fid LEFT JOIN `field_data_field_enable_tracking` AS `et` ON et.entity_id = n.nid LEFT JOIN `field_data_field_head_tags` AS `ht` ON ht.entity_id = n.nid LEFT JOIN `field_data_field_body_tags` AS `bt` ON bt.entity_id = n.nid WHERE (n.status = 1) AND (n.type = 'article') AND (n.nid = 252140) AND (wn.sid= 3) AND (p.field_publication__tid IN (2465,2851,3184,3159,3266,3264,3270,3265,3267,3268,3269,3171,3168,3185,3170,1346,1345,3180,3175,3254,3249,1207,1208,3181,3231,3177,3186,3178,1003,3187,2975,3204,3198,3188,3202,3196,3250,3189,3160,3161,3312,3313,3173,3314,3315,3167,3259,3257,3263,3258,3260,3261,3262,3174,3316,3165,3192,3163,3282,3190,2811,3256,3317,3162,3318,3191,3297,3182,3179,3166,3319,3376,3320,3172,3255,3169,1008,3203,3197,3321,3252,3164,1307,3322,3183,3220,3176,3201,3323,1327,1020,1006,1009,1013,1014,1018,1005,1328,1010,1011,1002,1012,1311,1330,1017,1016,1019,1004,1001,1334,1335,1336,1015,1337,1338,1339,1340,1341,2496,2501,2517,2529,2506,2505,2524,2513,2526,2537,2489,2490,2520,2536,2488,2532,2500,2515,2503,2493,2527,2523,2510,2525,2498,2499,2528,2507,2487,2511,2521,2502,2491,2519,2497,2492,2514,2495,2509,2512,1629,3358)) LIMIT 1
Dismiss