Poland’s core inflation picks up to 2.4% y/y in September

Poland’s core inflation picks up to 2.4% y/y in September
Polish core inflation came in at 2.4% y/y in September according to the NBP Polish core inflation came in at 2.4% y/y in September, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) said on October 16.
By Wojciech Kosc in Warsaw October 17, 2019

Polish core inflation came in at 2.4% y/y in September, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) said on October 16. 

The growth rate is 0.2pp higher than the y/y reading recorded in August. The elevated core inflation underpins CPI although headline price growth eased 0.3pp to 2.6% y/y in September. 

Poland’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) remains dovish, expecting headline inflation to peak in the first quarter of 2020. Polish interest rates have lingered at a record low of 1.5% for over four years now.

The head of the council and the governor of the central bank Adam Glapinski has said a number of times recently that rates could remain unchanged at least until the end of 2021.

A change in monetary policy could only take place if there was a sudden and unexpected deterioration of the political or economic situation in Poland or abroad, the rate-setting body has long insisted. That is not in sight, however. Poland has observed a slowdown of economic growth in 2019 but it has been incremental. 

Poland’s GDP growth is expected to come in at 4% in 2019, according to the most recent project by the International Monetary Fund. Most other forecasts expect the economy to grow around 4% as well, driven by consumption.

The central bank assumes CPI growth at 1.7%-2.3% in 2019, compared to the March outlook of 1.2%-2.2%.

CPI is then forecast to accelerate to 1.9%-3.7% in 2020 (1.7%-3.6% previously) and 1.3%-3.5% in 2021 (unchanged). The CPI estimates will be revisited in November.

 

Data

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