Poland’s core inflation, which measures price growth without food and energy, grew 0.2pp to 9.3% y/y in July (chart), the National Bank of Poland (NBP) said on August 16.
Headline inflation in Poland has been elevated for months, with CPI growth at 15.6% y/y in July, as the war in Ukraine impacted the prices of energy and fuels heavily.
The outlook for inflation assumes price growth will ease incrementally in the next few months, then shoot up early in 2023 on the back of administrative changes to taxes and energy tariffs.
After that, inflation is expected to begin a more sustained descent, analysts say.
Price growth apparently losing steam could prompt the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to end its monetary policy tightening streak as soon as September.
The central bank raised its reference interest rate ten times in as many months between October and July from the all-time low of 0.1% to 6.5%.
Analysts expect that the interest rate is likely to increase to around 7.25% before the NBP hits the pause button.
In m/m terms, core inflation grew 0.6% in July, the NBP data also showed.