Most Armenians want an early general election—but at the same time the My Step ruling parliamentary bloc, led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian, remains the only political force in Armenia that attracts significant public support. 

Those are the findings of a survey from the International Republican Institute (IRI), seen as the most dependable measure of public opinion in the country since the end of the war over Nagorno-Karabakh with Azerbaijan last November that left Armenia sunk in crisis when many Armenians claimed Pashinian mishandled the conflict before signing a humiliating ceasefire deal with Baku brokered by the Kremlin. Pashinian has repeatedly rejected demands that he step down, saying the truce was the only way to prevent Azerbaijan seizing all the disputed territories inside Nagorno-Karabakh and around the enclave. He has said he would accept a snap election, but only according to conditions that keep him in power in advance of the poll, something that is unacceptable to the opposition parties ranged against him.

In the poll, 55% of respondents said they were in favour of a snap election, with 57% of those saying the poll should take place this spring. Thirteen percent said it should be scheduled for the summer. 

Another recent poll, from MPG/Gallup International, found 58% of respondents backed the proposal to call an early election.

The IRI poll did not ask Armenians about whether Pashinian should resign, or their approval of him. The MPG/Gallup poll found 44% wanted him to step down and 39% wanted him to stay in office. 

The IRI survey did ask about the favourability ratings of institutions, producing the finding that 54% approved of the work of the prime minister’s office. That was down from 72% in a May 2019 IRI poll.  

Perhaps surprisingly to some observers, given the persistent street protest calls for Pashinian to go, 33% of respondents said they would vote for the PM’s party, Civil Contract, or his parliamentary bloc My Step if an election was held immediately. The next most popular party was Prosperous Armenia, headed by 64-year-old oligarch and former world champion arm wrestler and boxer Gagik Tsarukyan. But it got only 3% support. 

Less support in Yerevan

The backing for Pashinian was, notably, found to be substantially lower in Yerevan; there only 22% said they would vote for his party or bloc. Yet, in the capital as well, no alternative party or bloc beat 3%.

IRI also found that one quarter of Armenians favoured “withdrawal from the ceasefire agreement, even at the risk of a renewal of military conflict”.

Separately, Levon Ter-Petrosian, Armenia’s first president, on March 16 called for the immediate resignation of Pashinian “in the interest of the nation”.

Ter-Petrosian said Pashinian should step down voluntarily, receive “legal guarantees of immunity” from parliament, and leave the country at least temporarily.

In an article published on the ilur.am news website, the 76-year-old former president said that if these steps were taken, a nonpartisan deputy prime minister should then be made acting prime minister. That deputy PM should then remain neutral while organising a snap parliamentary election, he added.

Ter-Petrosian, president from 1991-98, also said that he concurred with Vazgen Manukian, his 1996 election rival, that it was unacceptable for Pashinian to stay on as acting prime minister to oversee an electoral process.

Manukian heads the opposition Homeland Salvation Movement. He is the opposition coalition’s candidate to become transitional PM.

Manukian also claimed, RFE/RL reported, that the widespread misuse by Pashinian and his political team of administrative resources would push the outcome of the election in their favour and turn all polling stations into “hotbeds of tension”.

“I am convinced that in that case we will witness the most disgraceful elections in the history of Armenia,” Ter-Petrosian reportedly said. “And this may spell the end of the Armenian statehood or its prolonged nightmarish existence.”

Pashinian and his team have staunchly rejected opposition claims that they would attempt to influence the election outcome. They have said they make up the only Armenian political team to have ever organised free and fair elections. Those took place in 2018 after the country’s velvet revolution led by Pashinian.

Ter-Petrosian was himself accused of rigging elections in 1996, something he denied.