Conservative historian Karol Nawrocki’s victory in the June presidential election in Poland has all but dashed Ukrainian hopes of Warsaw speaking with one voice about Ukraine.

Nawrocki, who narrowly defeated Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski – who ran with Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s backing – made relations with Ukraine one of top themes of his campaign.

Nawrocki spoke strongly against Ukraine’s membership in NATO and warned against hastily accepting Ukraine in the European Union. Ukraine’s highly uncertain future in NATO is a reflection of the stance of President Donald Trump, whose administration backed Nawrocki.

He also spoke in favour of limiting – largely only perceived – privileges, which the Polish state gave Ukrainians who fled to Poland after Russia’s attack in February 2022.

History first

The president-elect’s stance appears to have been driven by his work as the head of the Institute of National Remembrance, a state agency probing crimes against Poland and Poles committed by the Nazis and the Soviets in the 20th century.

Poland and Ukraine have now disputed for decades the way forward on the thorny issue of an estimated 100,000 Poles murdered by Ukrainian nationalists in the 1940s. 

Ukraine’s nationalist movement sought at the time ways to establish an independent Ukrainian state – a tall order under the alternating Nazi and Soviet control of the country, much of its territory inhabited by Poles, stranded after Berlin and Moscow partitioned their country in 1939.

Polish victims’ remains await exhumation, burial and commemoration, Warsaw says.

“We cannot ignore the difficult history between Poland and Ukraine. Issues such as the Volhynian massacre demand clear accountability before we can discuss membership in NATO or the EU,” Nawrocki said, referring to the culmination of the atrocities in the summer of 1943. In 2024, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk expressed a very similar position.

After years of bickering, exhumations of Polish victims of what the Polish parliament – to Ukraine’s undisguised anger – has recently called genocide, began in Ukraine in April. Nawrocki is now seen as likely to increase political pressure on Ukraine to do more and faster, tying the history-based dispute to Ukraine’s very current issues.

“Poland will continue to support Ukraine strategically and militarily, but Kyiv must first address unresolved economic and historical issues before joining the EU or NATO,” Nawrocki said.

Since 2022, Polish governments have grappled with discontent of large voter groups – such as farmers or truckers – opposing unfair trade rules under the EU’s mechanism of easing market access to Ukrainian companies and products as part of wartime solidarity.

Nawrocki has said that it smacked of Poland’s being taken advantage of, a view contradicted by trade data.

Polish businesses ended 2024 with a substantial trade surplus with Ukraine, exporting goods worth PLN56bn (€12.9bn), an increase of PLN5bn – nearly 10% – on the previous year, the statistical office GUS said in March. In comparison, Ukrainian exports to Poland totalled PLN20.5bn, only slightly higher than in 2023.

Still, in the delicate balance of domestic politics, Nawrocki could well project a tough message against Poland’s allegedly excessive cost of supporting Ukraine. While the economic policy remains outside his powers (unless he vetoes relevant legislation), pressure from Nawrocki could alter the position of the government, which will be wary not to compromise its chances in the next general election in 2027.

Back to mainstream?

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has offered warm praise for Warsaw’s new leader. 

“Poland, which protects the strength of its national spirit and belief in justice, has been and remains a pillar of regional and European security,” Zelenskiy said in a congratulatory message on his social media. 

“Strengthening our partnership gives Europe greater power in global competition and brings us closer to lasting peace,” Zelenskiy also said.

But Nawrocki stuck to his messaging from the campaign. “I look forward to further partnership based on mutual respect and understanding. I believe that requires not only good dialogue but also resolving historical issues. Poland was Ukraine’s strongest support against Russian aggression, and no other nation understands this threat more than we do,” the president-elect said in response.

Nawrocki’s taking over as president thus marks a departure from the stance of outgoing President Andrzej Duda, who championed swift backing for Kyiv after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, and also for membership status in the EU and NATO.

“I have a different perspective on these issues. That viewpoint derives, among other things, from nearly ten years of presidential experience and the knowledge I have gathered over that time. I will certainly want to share that expertise,” Duda told the Lithuanian public broadcaster LRT on June 2.

While opposed on most issues, Duda and the Tusk government see (more or less) eye to eye on the security of Ukraine, which, they say, is the best security guarantee to Poland. Warsaw has long said that Russia might zero in on Poland next if it prevails in Ukraine.

“Perspective depends on the point of view. From the presidential seat, the world looks rather different,” Duda also said, referring to what Nawrocki might do once taking over.

Meanwhile, Russian propaganda has seized on Nawrocki’s rhetoric, portraying his comments as proof of a Polish shift away from Kyiv. Kremlin outlets highlighted his reference to the Volhynian massacres and the conditional approach to Ukraine’s future as a member of the EU and NATO.

“Russia has invested heavily in stoking anti-Ukrainian sentiment in Poland. Their goal is not to make Poles embrace Moscow, but to foster resentment towards Ukraine,” Jakub Biernat of Biełsat, a publicly-funded Polish broadcaster focused on Belarus, told PAP on June 7.

Even though Nawrocki’s rise to presidency owes in substantial part to support from the far-right sympathisers, who are Poland’s most anti-Ukrainian political orientations, the current sentiment is that president-elect will eventually fit with the general consensus.

“Nawrocki clearly separates military support from historical dialogue and accession talks. Strategic backing for Ukraine’s defence is and will remain a Polish decision,” Stanisław Żaryn, a former national security advisor, told PAP, also on June 7.

That, however, will take some political independence and a resolve to stand up against the popular sentiment.

Polish support for Ukrainian refugees has fallen from over 90% in 2022 to just above 50% in early 2025. Polls by the Mieroszewski Centre and CBOS show favourable views of Ukrainians among Poles halving since the war began, while negative attitudes have more than doubled.

“After 36 years of Polish freedom and 11 years of Ukrainian independence, it is alarming to see history used to stir fear and shape policy,” Mirosław Skórka, a leader of the Ukrainian minority in Poland told money.pl on June 6.