Indian imports of Russian oil are expected to increase in September as New Delhi presses ahead with purchases despite new US punitive tariffs, Reuters reported on August 28.

India has emerged as the largest buyer of Russian crude since Western sanctions disrupted traditional trade flows after Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The discounted barrels have helped Indian refiners secure cheaper supplies, but the purchases have drawn criticism from Washington. On August 27, the US government under President Donald Trump raised tariffs on Indian imports to 50%, a move that New Delhi says it is addressing through dialogue while at the same time boosting diplomatic outreach, including discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Reuters noted.

Traders told Reuters that Indian refiners plan to increase Russian crude imports in September by 10–20% from August levels, equivalent to an additional 150,000–300,000 barrels per day. The rise comes as Russian exporters have more crude available due to refinery outages and Ukrainian attacks on processing facilities that have sidelined up to 17% of Russia’s refining capacity.

India imported about 1.5mn barrels per day of Russian crude in the first 20 days of August, steady from July but below the January–June average of 1.6mn bpd, according to Vortexa data. The volumes equal roughly 1.5% of global supply, with Russian crude covering about 40% of India’s oil needs. Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy, the two biggest Indian buyers, did not immediately comment.

Russian Urals crude for September loading is being sold at a discount of $2–$3 a barrel to dated Brent, deeper than the August discount of $1.50, traders said. Analysts suggest India is unlikely to scale back imports significantly unless economics change sharply or a global ban is enforced. Brokerage CLSA warned that halting Indian purchases could cut global supply by 1mn bpd and briefly drive oil prices towards $100 a barrel.

Meanwhile, the European Union has tightened its price cap on Russian crude to $47.60 per barrel from September 2, restricting Western services for cargoes sold above that threshold. The combined effect of US tariffs and EU restrictions is expected to filter into Indian imports by October, when cargoes booked in the coming days begin arriving.