Although many rice-consuming nations will face tight supplies in the coming months due to the El Niño effect, India's rice market is likely to be well supplied. The outlook is supported by robust procurement under the government's minimum support price (MSP) programme, record domestic grain availability and comfortable stock levels, according to a recent report by market intelligence firm BigMint.

The country’s exports, too, are likely to hit a record, which is expected to bring some relief to global markets. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is of the view that India will achieve its highest-ever exports of 25mn tonnes this year. India’s year-end closing stocks are also expected to be high.

The rice procurement by government agencies under the MSP programme during marketing year (MY) 2025-26 (through June 4, 2026) is estimated at 54.15mn tonnes, compared with 51.16mn tonnes during the same period last year, according to BigMint. In India, the rice marketing year begins in October and ends in September.

With higher rabi/summer rice output expected in MY 2025-26, procurement by government agencies is likely to run through till September 2026. As a result, total rice procurement in MY 2025-26 is projected to reach 58mn tonnes, up from 55.5mn tonnes in the previous year and substantially above the government's yearly rice requirement of 40-42mn tonnes. The Indian government uses this stock for public distribution and food security schemes.

As per provisional trade statistics, India has already shipped out about 13.4mn tonnes of rice in MY 2025-26 till April 2026 as against 14.5mn tonnes during the same period of the previous MY. According to the USDA report, India’s monthly rice exports began the marketing year on a slow note but have picked up since February this year.

Trade sources told BigMint that Indian rice remains competitively priced when compared with rice from other countries due to relatively soft local prices and the weakening of the Indian rupee against the US dollar in the recent past. Monthly rice export numbers are likely to hit 2mn tonnes during the rest of the marketing year if Indian rice continues to be attractively priced. This run rate should take MY 2025-26 exports to a record 23mn tonnes.

When it comes to the MY 2026-27, the USDA has pencilled in rice exports at a fresh record of 25mn tonnes driven by surplus domestic supplies and continued competitive pricing of Indian rice relative to other countries. The Indian government, unlike in recent years, is not expected to impose any new restrictions on rice movements as it believes domestic stocks are more than enough to undertake market intervention measures if required in the future to control domestic prices.

India’s rice consumption figures have been revised higher by the USDA to 125mn tonnes for MY 2025-26. This estimate has been revised higher, taking into account comfortable domestic supplies and bigger offloading by the government agencies in the local market and to ethanol manufacturers at subsidised prices.

When it comes to ending stocks, the USDA has raised MY 2025-26 figures to 54mn tonnes, supported by larger output and robust procurement by government agencies. The MY 2026-27 is also likely to end with stocks of 51mn tonnes. At the current speed of offtake through food security schemes, sales in open market sales and to ethanol manufacturers, government stocks at the end of the current marketing year and start of new marketing year on October 1, 2026 are projected at 50mn tonnes, up from 44.9mn tonnes in the previous year. Rice stocks with private entities, mostly held by exporters, are projected at 4mn tonnes compared with 3.1mn tonnes last year. As a result, MY 2025-26 ending stocks are projected at a record 54mn tonnes.

Records stocks due to bumper output 

According to a separate report published by Reuters, India's rice stocks in government warehouses rose 15% year-on-year to a record high for the start ​of June.

Record inventories of rice will help India, which is the world's biggest exporter, ramp up shipments despite concerns over rainfall due to an El Nino weather ​pattern. State reserves of rice, including unmilled paddy, totalled a ​record 68.43mn tonnes as of June 1, much higher than the government's ​target of 13.5mn tonnes for July 1.

In the global rice export market, India holds a significant 40% share. In 2023, New Delhi clamped down on exports, impacting a large number of countries. The export curbs were lifted last year in March.

In recent ​years, India has ​held rice ⁠inventories while facing tighter wheat supplies, but this year the country has abundant inventories of both grains.