Damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial Complex and the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has delayed the oversupply of LNG to the market.

What: An oversupply of LNG had been predicted for 2027, but the LNG glut has now been delayed a year to 2028.

Why: Unforeseen attacks on Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial Complex damaged two liquefaction trains and Iran’s closing of the Strait of Hormuz essentially blocked 17% of global supply from reaching the market.

What Next: With the LNG glut delayed, excess supply of the super-chilled fuel is now expected to peak in 2031 to 2032, when several new projects begin operation.

The global LNG market is now expected to reach oversupply in 2028, one year later than initially expected, BloombergNEF reported in its Global Gas and LNG Outlook on July 14.

The oversupply of super-chilled fuel was previously forecast for 2027, but Iran’s attack on Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial Complex has disrupted global LNG trade. A drone attack by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on March 2 caused significant damaged.

Just two days later, QatarEnergy was forced to declare force majeure on its deliveries to customers amid the significant damage done to the facility which boasts 14 liquefaction trains with a total production capacity of 77 mn tonnes per year (tpy) of LNG. The facility is the largest LNG plant in the world.

About two weeks later on March 18 Iran conducted a two-day ballistic missile attack on the LNG plant damaging liquefaction trains 4 and 6 at the facility as well as a gas-to-liquids processing train.

The damage to the two liquefaction trains removes 12.8 mn tpy of LNG from the market until repairs are completed in three to five years, which is about 17% of Qatar’s production capacity. It is expected to cost the Gulf exporter a loss in revenue of about $20 bn per year, while repair costs are expected to reach as high as $26 bn.

Meanwhile, Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz to LNG tankers. The strait is a key chokepoint in the global LNG trade with about 20% of global supply transiting through the passage from key suppliers Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

Getting supply from Qatar, the world’s second biggest LNG exporter in 2025 behind only the US, back on the market remains a complicate procedure without any current timeline.

After the establishment of the ceasefire framework between the US and Iran, Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said that Qatar would return to normal LNG production within a few weeks.

While QatarEnergy had been planning to ramp-up production to normal levels by mid-July, attacks on vessels have derailed those hopes. An attack in early July by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on a Qatari LNG tanker and a Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker have caused Doha to reconsider its LNG strategy. The attack marked the first time a Qatari tanker was targeted by Iran.

For now, QatarEnergy’s operations will be kept at a minimum for the foreseeable future until the security situation in the Strait of Hormuz is stabilized. Previously, Qatar had hoped that it may be able to lift its force majeure by July 16, however, those plans have now been scrapped with force majeure notices provided for August to some customers in Asia.

Passages through the strait have plummeted to almost no vessels. On July 16 only three commodity tankers crossed the strait, according to Reuters. A commander with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps recently stated that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be governed solely by rules set by Iran.

Qatar’s expansions plans also now hang in the balance. On March 8, the Gulf country announced it would push back expansion plans for the North Field project to 2027. It had previously hoped to bring online four new liquefaction trains in the project in the second half of the year for the North Field East expansion.

The North Field South expansion, which will see two new liquefaction trains added, was planned for 2027, however, it is also at risk of being pushed back a year.

Despite the setbacks for both Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, the US is expected to see enormous growth in its output. The world’s largest LNG exporter is predicted by BloombergNEF to witness supply growth of the super-chilled fuel of around 146 mn tpy through 2035.

BloombergNEF also forecasts that global oversupply of the super-cooled gas will be over 100 mn tonnes by 20231.

The forecasts of an oversupply come despite predictions of tremendous growth in demand for LNG. In its LNG Outlook 2026, Shell predicted a 65% surge in LNG demand by 2050 to almost 700 mn tpy. The world’s biggest LNG trader also forecasts about 180 mn tpy of new LNG supply to enter the market by 2030.