Fitch Global Ratings cut its forecast for Poland’s economic growth in 2026 to 3.3% from 3.6%, citing weaker GDP data and lower external demand, the rating agency said on June 8.

Fitch kept its 2027 growth forecast unchanged at 2.9% and said it expected 3.2% growth in 2028, in line with Poland’s potential.

“We have lowered our forecast for real GDP growth in 2026 to 3.3% from 3.6% in March, reflecting weaker GDP performance and lower external demand, including cuts to eurozone growth forecasts,” Fitch said.

“We maintain our growth forecast for 2027 at 2.9%, as fiscal consolidation and falling public investment financed from EU funds slightly slow the economic expansion,” Fitch said.

Poland’s growth outlook remains supported by a tight labour market, wage growth, improving bank lending and still relatively loose fiscal policy, Fitch said.

The agency said the €43.7bn SAFE loan agreement should support defence spending and strengthen the medium-term contribution of Poland’s domestic defence industry to economic growth.

Fitch raised its forecast for Poland’s end-2026 inflation to 3.5% from 3.3%, citing an energy price shock in the wake of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. The agency expects inflation to fall in subsequent years towards the middle of the National Bank of Poland’s tolerance band.

Fitch expects the NBP reference rate to remain at 3.75% until the end of 2026, followed by one 25bp cut in 2027 and stabilisation at 3.5% through the end of 2028.

The outlook “also reflects a trade-off between inflation and a very loose fiscal stance, a tight labour market and still elevated inflation expectations,” Fitch said.

The agency expects the zloty to weaken slightly to 3.65 against the dollar by the end of 2026 and to 3.68 by the end of 2027, citing current trends and expected changes in macroeconomic and external positions, including a terms-of-trade shock.

Fitch forecasts private consumption growth of 3.8% in 2026, slowing to 2.6% in 2027 and 2.4% in 2028. Investment is expected to rise 5.0% in 2026, 2.9% in 2027 and 2.4% in 2028.

Among the three largest rating agencies, Moody’s rates Poland highest at A2, with a negative outlook. Fitch and S&P rate Poland at A-, one notch lower. S&P has a stable outlook on Poland, while Fitch’s outlook is negative.