The European Union’s population is set to begin a long-term decline from 2029 as falling birth rates and an ageing society reshape labour markets, public finances and regional economies, according to a European Commission report published on July 14.

The EU population is projected to peak at 453.3mn people in 2029 before entering a gradual decline, falling to around 445mn by 2050 and to 398.8mn by 2100, the report said.

That would represent a fall of about 11.7% from today’s level, bringing the bloc’s population back to a size last seen in the 1970s.

“Europe’s population is currently at its peak,” the Commission said, adding that demographic change was “not an abstract concept” but a transformation affecting “your region, your access to services, your ability to move or your right to stay”.

The report, prepared by the Commission’s Joint Research Centre, said Europe’s demographic transition would create challenges for employment, healthcare, pensions and public spending, but could also create new economic opportunities as people live longer and healthier lives.

“The expanding longevity economy opens new markets for products, services and innovations tailored to older citizens, potentially spurring growth and job creation in healthcare, technology and financial services,” the Commission said.

The EU’s population reached 450.6mn at the start of 2025, up from 354.5mn in 1960, but growth has slowed sharply. While the bloc’s population continued to rise in recent years, this was driven by migration rather than natural population growth. “Since 2012, more people have died each year than have been born,” the report said.

East-west demographic divide

Although demographic ageing will affect every EU member state, the impact will vary significantly between regions, with many eastern and southern European countries facing some of the sharpest declines.

The report highlighted sustained population losses in the Baltic states, eastern Germany, eastern Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, southern Italy and parts of Spain and Portugal, while growth is expected to remain concentrated in major cities and economically dynamic regions.

“Population decline is projected across most EU regions, while growth remains concentrated in specific areas,” the Commission said.

Almost three quarters of EU regions — 837 out of 1,165 — are expected to lose population between 2025 and 2050, affecting areas home to around 258mn people, or 57% of the EU population.

The demographic pressures are particularly pronounced in many of the bloc’s newer eastern members, where decades of low birth rates have been compounded by the departure of younger workers following EU accession and increased labour mobility.

Countries including Bulgaria, Romania, Latvia and Lithuania have experienced some of the fastest population declines in Europe as large numbers of young people have moved abroad in search of better economic opportunities. By contrast, several western and northern European countries have been better placed to offset ageing through higher immigration levels and younger population structures.

Growth is expected to continue in some capital regions and major urban centres, as well as parts of Ireland, southern Sweden, southern Germany and coastal regions of France and Spain.

The Commission warned that regional disparities risk becoming self-reinforcing as declining areas lose workers, investment and services. “The result is a ‘self reinforcing cycle’ where demographic decline leads to inadequate service provision, which in turn results in further outmigration and demographic decline,” the report said.

Young people are particularly important to this divide, with many leaving smaller towns and poorer regions for larger cities.

“The departure of young talent from regions and countries facing demographic challenges undermines their economic capacity, and risks setting in motion a self-reinforcing cycle of economic and demographic decline,” the Commission said.

Ageing workforce and pressure on services

Alongside population decline, Europe faces a profound shift in its age structure. Life expectancy at birth reached 81.5 years in 2024, reflecting improvements in healthcare, living standards and social conditions. By 2050, almost one in three EU residents will be aged 65 or older, compared with around one in five today.

The number of people aged over 80 is also expected to rise significantly, increasing demand for healthcare and long-term care.

“The shift to a longevity society also increases demand for healthcare and long-term care,” the report said, with the number of people requiring support expected to rise from 36mn today to 48mn by 2070.

At the same time, Europe’s working-age population is shrinking, creating pressure on employers and public budgets. Around 20% of working-age people are currently outside the labour market, while an estimated 8mn young people are not in education, employment or training.

The Commission said increasing labour market participation, improving skills and attracting skilled migrants would be essential to maintaining economic growth.

“Boosting productivity and unlocking untapped talent will be key to addressing the impact of a shrinking workforce,” it said.

The report also pointed to the need to increase female employment, support older workers who want to remain economically active, and invest in education and retraining.

Policy response

The Commission said demographic change required action across multiple policy areas, from housing and skills to healthcare and regional development.

The EU’s “Demography Toolbox”, adopted in 2023, provides governments with policy tools to respond to population ageing and decline, while other initiatives focus on affordable housing, lifelong learning, care systems and support for rural regions.

“Demographic change is happening now and we have an opportunity to address it head-on,” said European Commissioner for the Mediterranean, responsible for demography, Dubravka Suica, as quoted in the report.

“The drivers of demographic change are complex and multifaceted and require a mix of measures across a number of policy domains and levels of governance,” she said.

The Commission said its proposed 2028-2034 budget framework would include demographic change as an objective of national and regional partnership plans.