Dubai has only ten days of fresh food left after the closure of the Straits of Hormuz has cut the United Arab Emirates (UAE) off from all its imports, including food. In Abu Dhabi, with the prospect of the region becoming unliveable, real estate prices are also collapsing.

As bne IntelliNews reported, the Hormuz chokepoint could kill Dubai, a hub of investment and business in the region. The Gulf countries don’t have any water and don’t produce much food for their combined population of around 60mn people. Fresh products in particular like vegetables and fruit are almost all imported. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) closed the Straits of Hormuz to oil exports on March 2, but the embargo also effectively blocked all food imports at the same time.

The Emirates imports between 80% and 90% of its food, with roughly 70% of food shipments to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries normally passing through the Strait of Hormuz on the 100- odd ships that traversed the Straits until a week ago.

At the same time, the US hit Iranian desalination plants on March 7 in an escalation that will destroy the region's access to water, if the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) choose a tit-for-tat retaliation. Like food, the region has little fresh water and relies on a hundred desalination plants dotted down the Gulf coast for the vast majority of its water needs.

Logistics executives say the impact is already visible in supply chain data. Stefan Paul, chief executive officer of global freight company Kuehne and Nagel, warned that the disruption could quickly affect the availability of fresh produce in the region’s largest trading hub and empty the supermarket shelves.

“Dubai has ten days of fresh food left,” Paul told Swiss broadcaster SRF, citing internal logistics data tracking shipments into the Gulf. Three quarters of Dubai’s food is delivered by ship with another quarter flown in, but air transport has been as badly affected as shipping. On March 7 the IRGC hit the Dunia International Airport with a missile effectively closing it down.

Global air cargo capacity serving the Middle East fell 22% between February 28 and March 3, according to Aevean data published by Reuters, reducing one of the few alternative routes for perishable food imports.

At the same time, Jebel Ali, the region’s largest port and the main maritime gateway serving the roughly 60mn people across the Gulf, was struck during the conflict and temporarily suspended operations. Partial activity resumed on March 5, but logistics companies say the disruption has further slowed the flow of goods into the region.

Fresh produce supply chains are particularly vulnerable because of the short shelf life of many products. Unlike grains or canned goods, fruit and vegetables cannot be stored for extended periods or easily rerouted over long maritime detours.

“These products have days of shelf life, not weeks or months,” Paul noted. “They cannot be rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope because the Cape of Good Hope adds four to six weeks to a transit and a strawberry does not survive four to six weeks in a container.”

Dubai’s wealth means that financing imports is not the primary constraint. The local economies function as the Gulf states export oil and get paid in dollars, bringing in the foreign exchange needed to pay for imported food.

“The problem is not money. The problem is physics,” Paul said. “You cannot teleport produce from Spain or Kenya or India onto Dubai supermarket shelves when the air cargo lanes are 22% contracted and the port is still recovering from Iranian strikes.”

The ten day deadline applies primarily to fresh produce rather than total food supplies. The UAE is not about to starve. It maintains strategic grain reserves and holds significant stocks of frozen and packaged foods, meaning the country is not facing a broader food shortage. But products like apples and salad will be hard to come by as soon as the end of this week, say logistics companies.

“Empty produce aisles in Dubai Spinneys is the point where the population that has so far watched the war with alarm rather than hunger begins to feel it directly,” analysts said. “The war’s civilian transmission mechanism has arrived.”

Abu Dhabi real estate prices collapse

The impact of the war is also spilling over into the Abu Dhabi real estate market where property prices have collapsed. Gulf states have prospered as a playground for the rich, but after the war broke out residents are fleeing from what many fear will be a protracted and destructive war. As bne IntelliNews reported, Russian residents of UAE in particular are paying through the nose of leave after making Dubai their home following the invasion of Ukraine four years ago.

A similar story is playing out in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the UAE, as several high-end property agents slashed their prices in what analysts say may be the largest single-day drop recorded in the Emirate’s luxury residential segment.

A four-bedroom villa on the prestigious Al Jubail Island on the northeastern coastline has seen its asking price drop by $817,000 (AED3mn) in a single revision in recent days, marking one of the steepest individual price cuts tracked in recent months. The Seef Al Jubail property, measuring nearly 800 square meters, was originally listed at $3.3mn (AED12.1mn) but is now being offered for $2.5mn (AED9.2mn) – nearly a million dollar reduction in just a few days.

Another luxury property at the Louvre Abu Dhabi Residences on Saadiyat Island, another tourism and luxury residential district in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, located about 500m offshore from the city centre in the Persian Gulf, also saw a sharp markdown. One two-bedroom apartment’s asking price was cut by $436,000 (AED1.6mn), dropping from $2.5mn (AED9.2mn) to $2.1mn (AED7.7mn).

Data from a scan of 3,605 residential listings across Abu Dhabi on the same day shows the adjustments extend beyond isolated cases. A total of 43 properties recorded price reductions, with an average cut of 4.4% and the largest single drop reaching 25%. In aggregate, sellers removed about $3.9mn (AED14.3mn) in value from the listings.

Real estate agents say the number and size of the cuts are uncommon in Abu Dhabi’s typically stable property market, which has benefited in recent years from inflows of foreign buyers and relocation demand from other regional hubs.

While Abu Dhabi’s property market has generally been supported by strong government spending and demand for prime waterfront developments such as Saadiyat Island, the latest price adjustments suggest sellers are recalibrating and do not expect the current war to be over quickly.