Turkey’s largest opposition party has failed to meet its responsibility to galvanise the protest movement sparked by the jailing of its presidential candidate Ekrem Imamoglu. And if that party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), fails to act now to take up the challenge, the remnants of Turkish democracy will be lost, with no likelihood of a “second chance”.

That’s the advice of a Turkish-British political analyst and human rights activist, writing for The New Arab, whose ominous warning relates to conclusions published by this publication in March, in the days after the Imamoglu arrest—namely, that in seeking to bring down a two-decade-old regime that is ready to kill to stay in power, the CHP and others in the protest movement have no hope if they resort to half-measures.

“It is ultimately the responsibility of the CHP to galvanise this protest movement, and the wider population for that matter,” says the analyst writing for The New Arab, using a pseudonym, Orhan Kaya, due to the sensitivity of the situation and his work.

“It is, after all, by far the largest opposition party that has a national network of party officials and members, infrastructure and finances, connections to trade unions and businesses, and the longstanding loyalty of older opposition-minded Turks,” he continues. “Not to mention, it is the imprisonment of their future presidential candidate that sparked the protests. However, so far the CHP has failed to take up this challenge.”

Jailed Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu (@ekrem_imamoglu) last week shared an illustration depicting his cell at Silivri Prison.(Credit: @ekrem_imamoglu).

Kaya outlines how there is no doubt that the CHP now faces two options, writing that they can either continue down the current path, regularly mobilising “large but mostly symbolic crowds in non-prominent locations” alongside a half-hearted boycott of businesses and brands associated with Erdogan, “Or, they can call for civil disobedience on a mass scale, with 24/7 protests and occupations in prominent locations such as Sarachane in Istanbul (the epicentre of the initial protests), Guvenpark in Ankara, and Cumhuriyet Square in Izmir, combined with public calls for a general strike and boycott.

“Undoubtedly the latter strategy will lead to even more arrests and violence by state forces as Erdogan has demonstrated that he is determined to destroy any electoral threat to his rule by any means necessary, whether it’s from Turkish or Kurdish opposition parties.

“It was all too visible during the clamp down on May Day protestors in Istanbul… during which over 200 people were arrested before it was even midday. However, if the CHP doesn’t act now to save itself, and the remnants of Turkish democracy, there will be no second chance.”

Kaya’s ultimate warning dovetails with the line taken by bne IntelliNews: “Unless the party ramps up its ambitions and is willing to challenge dictatorship head-on, Turkey risks sliding into an even more brazen and vicious form of autocracy.”

Though CHP leader Ozgur Ozel—who on May 4 was assaulted in Istanbul as he emerged from a funeral—can be a passionate speaker, his tactics when it comes to ending the deeply-rooted Erdogan administration tend to miss by a mile. In fact, so ineffective was Ozel in the year leading up to the Imamoglu detention that he came to be known among sceptics as the “Minister for the Opposition”.

Ozel, or another protest leader coming to the fore, needs to find something extra, and find it fast.