Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar have united to call on US President Donald Trump and actively urge Washington not to launch a strike against Iran on January 14.

The call comes as social media is tracking US military movements as bombers arrive in airbases in Hawaii in what is claimed is a build-up of airpower ahead of an extensive strike on military and government buildings in Iran

Trump has ratcheted up his rhetoric in the last two days as reports of at least 2,571 people or even as high as 12,000 deaths after only four-days of mass demonstrations trickle out of Iran.

If the higher number is confirmed, that would make this protest by far the deadliest since the original 1979 Islamic revolution. The highest death toll in the intervening years was in November 2019, when 1,500 were reported killed over three days, according to the human rights group previously.

The fears of the Arab leaders are real. Reports coming out of Washington suggest Pentagon officials are working overtime to prepare a large-scale assault on key targets in Iran in an effort to push the mass protests over the edge and cause the theocracy of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to fall, with Google Maps data suggesting increased activity in recent hours, bne IntelliNews has learned.

Arab leaders lobby against a US strike

Persian Gulf Arab leaders are afraid a US strike could completely destabilise the region if the Islamic Republic were to collapse. Their arguments are largely pragmatic. In the short-term, a US military operation would trigger an Iranian response, likely directed at them, with cities like Dubai being specifically targeted by underwater missile silos off the southern island of Kish, which is due north of the UAE's biggest city.

Tehran has threatened to “light up” Israel and US bases in the region. There was already an Iranian missile strike on a US base in Qatar last summer during the short war with Israel, but it was largely symbolic as Iran warned the US of the strike ahead of time, ensuring the US spy "Golf balls" were targeted.

But a serious US strike on Iran now would lead to an all-out assault on US military assets in the region, Arab Gulf monarchies as well as a renewed attack on Israel.

Iran could also carry through on threats to shut down the key Strait of Hormuz through which a fifth of the world's oil supplies pass, which the US has had to have a reaper drones fly over repeatedly in recent weeks to make sure the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) hasn't already blocked the narrow stretch. 

In the medium-term, Iran's ailing 86-year-old hardline Ayatollah Khamenei could activate his Axis of Resistance network of terrorist groups in the region, including Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthis, in an asymmetrical retaliation, sparking a wave of terrorist attacks that could last for years, with the Houthis in control of the Yemeni capital Sanaa targeting both Jeddah in Saudi Arabia and Ashkelon in Israel. 

US military buildup

The fears of an imminent attack are being stoked by reports of the US moving military assets into places from which it can strike Iran.         

Fears were stoked by flight tracking data that showed eight KC-135 aerial refuelling tankers that landed in Hawaii, a location previously used as a key stopover before US strikes in the Middle East targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Israel has raised its alert level for the Air Force and army units amid reports of a possible US strike on Iran, Israel’s Maariv reported on January 13, citing Israeli military sources.

The alert level has been increased in the Air Force, the Military Intelligence Service and the Northern Command, but no decision has been made to change the level of readiness on the home front, according to the report. According to Maariv, Israel’s military is coordinating with US Central Command regarding any potential strike on Iran.

MbS leads the effort

The Saudis have even assured Tehran they will not allow the US to use their airspace for strikes. This isn't due to sympathy for the regime - Riyadh simply fears unpredictable consequences and has been doing its best under the Crown Prince's rule to shift the country away from conflicts which plagued the Persian Gulf in the 20th century.

"They have no love for the Iranian regime in any form, but they dislike instability even more," explains Michael Ratney, former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, The Bell reports.

"By opening the Pandora's box of regime change—whether from within or without—you create enormous uncertainty, and that's the last thing they want."

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) is leading the effort to calm the situation down, as part of his increasingly assertive role to become the leader of the Arab world.

He has launched the Vision 2030 programme to diversify the economy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) as well as integrate the Middle East more closely into the Global Emerging Markets Institutions (GEMIs) as the emerging market groups like the G20 and BRICS+ play an increasingly important role in the global economy. The last thing that the Middle Eastern leaders want is a return to internecine struggles and regional instability.

Time not ripe

Israel is reportedly also recommending holding off for now, but for a different reason: Ayatollah Khamenei’s regime is not yet weakened enough for a "decisive" strike, NBC reports, citing American and Israeli officials. Israeli officials propose first increasing pressure through cyberattacks, sanctions, and aid to protesters—and only then, once the regime is completely undermined, launch a military strike.

Following a broadcast on January 8 by exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi calling the people to the streets, the entire country is now in open revolt with an estimated 1.8mn protestors in over 100 cities and towns in all of Iran’s 31 provinces.

On January 13, he issued a new message, once again calling on the military to change sides and support the protests: “By now, you have probably heard Trump’s message. Help is on the way (…) I have a special message for the Army. You are the national military of Iran, not the military of the Islamic Republic…”

The security forces have been overwhelmed by the sheer numbers, but while the protest momentum is still building, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and army remains loyal to the theocracy. Israel prefers to let the protests continue for now as it is already undermining the authorities’ grip on power and ability to contain the situation.

But this might be a slow process. The main problem of the Iranian opposition is its lack of unity and organisation. A non-systemic opposition is based abroad and divided into several camps: monarchists led by the deposed Shah's son, Reza Pahlavi; the Islamo-Marxist "Iranian People's Mujahideen Organisation" (aka MEK, once a terrorist organisation exiled in Albania); and Arab, Azeri,  Kurdish and Baloch separatists.

Netanyahu-backed Pahlavi has been the public face of the current mass demonstrations, calling for active US intervention and promises to "make Iran great again."

However, Trump has kept his distance from Pahlavi officially and refused to meet him, despite his presence in Mar-a-Lago this week. Instead, there have been reports of an unofficial meeting between the prince and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, who has also been heading up the Russia-Ukraine peace effort.

What comes next?

Another fear plaguing Iran’s Arab neighbours is that no one is sure what kind of regime will replace the Ayatollahs should they fall. As bne IntelliNews reported, one option is that there is an internal reshuffle of power rather than a complete collapse of the theocracy, and the face of a new administration is unclear in this scenario, argues Danny Citrinowicz, a Senior Researcher in the Iran and the Shi'ite Axis Programme at the US Institute for National Security Studies and former head of Israel Defence Intelligence (IDI).

Yet Citrinowicz cautioned against assuming regime collapse is imminent. “It should be remembered that the regime in Iran has a stable support base,” Citrinowicz added. Over 13mn people voted for the ultra-conservative candidate Jalili in the last presidential election. Such a support base constitutes a support for the regime and the activities of the [elite paramilitary] Basij and Revolutionary Guards. These are not going to disappear easily.”

So far, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) remains the only Arab state that has not joined in the lobbying effort, as it is traditionally more risk-tolerant than the other states, say experts, having already normalised relations with Israel. 

But that also makes American bases in the UAE a potential target for Iranian retaliation, as they were last summer, as well as the international hubs of Dubai and Abu Dhabi, which have built themselves on being regional tax havens.

Russia and China are losers

If the Islamic Republic falls, it will redraw the map of the Middle East and hurt both Russian and Chinese interests. For China, which effectively left the Iranians afloat in recent days amid the growing drums of war, it is likely to suffer the most, whatever the outcome. 

For Russia, it would mean the loss of yet another Middle Eastern ally following the ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad last year. However, the Kremlin has already been moving away from its personality-led approach to foreign policy, backing individuals friendly to Moscow, which has made it more flexible in its approach to regime change.

It has shifted to using access to Russia’s copious amounts of oil and grain as well as military and nuclear tech as its diplomatic coin with some success.

The main risk of escalation in Iran is oil. Iran exports about 2mn barrels per day, most of which goes to China. It risks losing access to 13.4% of its seaborne oil imports (more than 80% of Iranian exports go to China), but Chinese President Xi Jinping is also playing the long game in the Middle East, positioning itself as an honest broker. It has already successfully brokered a rapprochement between KSA and Iran last year which resumed diplomatic relations after an eight-year break.  

For Europe, it means a new wave of refugees. For the US, it means a chance to weaken its adversary, but also the risk of being drawn into yet another endless conflict in the Middle East.

Trump's 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran formally apply to $125bn in annual trade—that's how much Iran earned from international trade in 2024. Those affected include China ($32bn in trade with Iran), the UAE ($28bn), Turkey ($17bn), the EU ($6bn), India, and Russia. But for Russia, whose exports to the US are minimal under sanctions, the direct consequences are minor.