Africa / Opinion
COMMENT: The long road to a BRICS-led world order hits familiar obstacles
Brazil's upcoming BRICS summit exposes the bloc's growing pains as 21 members wrestle with deep divisions. The group's ambitious challenge to US financial dominance hits reality as internal disagreements threaten its push for global clout.
COMMENT: Middle East oil shock scenarios pose inflation risk, but economic hit seen as modest
The threat of escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has returned geopolitical risk to the heart of the global oil market. Yet according to Oxford Economics, the macroeconomic fallout – even in the most extreme case – may be mild.
BERTRAND: China, leading Asian countries, set up rival to International Court of Justice
China and a group of about 20 other countries (including Indonesia, Pakistan, Algeria and Serbia) are launching this week the "International Organization for Mediation" to rival the International Court of Justice.
COMMENT: Ranking the top 60 economies’ exposure to US tariffs
US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 50% tariff hike on the EU has put the cat amongst the pigeons again. If he follows through then Europe, which is highly dependent on US trade, will be amongst the most damaged economies in the world.
COMMENT: China’s debt-trap diplomacy - lessons from Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and beyond
For the nations affected this results in economic dependence on China and often the surrender of strategic assets - or both.
COMMENT: Amid shrinking civic space, will the EBRD still uphold its democratic mandate?
As the global Democracy Index recorded a historic low in 2024, institutions tasked with upholding democratic values are under increasing pressure to adapt.
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HALLIGAN: Power struggle in OPEC+ is pulling oil prices down
The oil market has entered choppy waters once again. Crude prices fell by a dramatic 18% in April y/y – the sharpest monthly drop since November 2021 – partly due to a global slowdown, but more due to a power struggle within OPEC+.
COMMENT: Trump’s tariff drive hits emerging markets as growth and inflation forecasts slide – Oxford Economics
President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies are already casting a long shadow over emerging market economies, with analysts cutting growth forecasts and warning of prolonged investment uncertainty and policy disruption.
IMF: Enhancing financial stability for resilience during uncertain times
Capital markets are essential for driving economic activity, providing mechanisms for raising funds and allocating resources efficiently. The stability of these markets and the financial institutions that intermediate them are critical.
IMF: Global debt to exceed pandemic levels soon
Global public debt is set to rise to 95% of GDP this year and will continue to climb in the next years to top 100%, says the IMF.
COMMENT: Five key trends in new global paradigm of narrow self-interest – Oxford Economics
A new global economic paradigm is taking shape as major economies pivot towards policies rooted in narrow national self-interest, a shift that political analysts at Oxford Economics believe will have lasting repercussions.
HALLIGAN: Trump's tariffs are either madness or genius – it could go either way
Donald Trump has referred to tariffs as “the most beautiful word in the dictionary”. And now the US President has unleashed the most aggressive surge in American trade protectionism in almost a century.
COMMENT: What impact will a raft of protests across the Emerging Markets have?
A spate of protests across several emerging markets is reigniting concerns over economic stability and long-term financial health. From Turkey to Indonesia, social unrest has flared up that threaten countries with weak fundamentals.