World Bank projects 0.4% economic contraction for Hungary in 2012.

By bne IntelliNews June 28, 2012
Hungarys economy is projected to contract by real 0.4% y/y in 2012, the World Bank said in its latest EU11 Regular Economic Report published on June 27, 2012. Only two other EU 11 countries, Slovenia and Croatia will slip into recession this year. The Hungarian economy will recover in 2013, when the GDP growth is estimated at 1.5% y/y. The forecast is based on the assumption that policies will be adopted in the euro area to successfully avoid a serious deterioration in international financial market conditions, the bank said. The World Banks projection for Hungary is more optimistic than estimates of other international institutions. The EBRD and the OECD projected last May that Hungarys economy should contract by 1% and 1.5% y/y respectively. However, in April, the IMF projected e zero growth for this year and a 1.8% expansion for 2013. Hungarys central bank sees the economy shrinking by 0.8% y/y in 2012. Under the governments macroeconomic framework, the GDP will stagnate in 2012 and will grow by real 1.6% y/y in 2013.
EU11, GDP forecast
2012 2013
EU11 1.5 2.5
Poland 2.9 3.2
Latvia 2.3 2.9
Lithuania 2.3 3.5
Slovakia 2.1 3.1
Estonia 1.7 3.0
Romania 1.2 2.8
Bulgaria 0.6 2.5
Czech Republic 0.0 1.0
Hungary -0.4 1.5
Croatia -1.0 1.5
Slovenia -1.2 0.6
EU15 -0.1 1.2
Source: World Bank, EU11 regular economic report
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