Tensions are approaching boiling point in Ukraine after citizens rioted in a protest against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s compulsory conscription programme in the western city of Lviv on July 9.

An anti-mobilisation demonstration turned violent after a large crowd of people attacked recruitment officers, before overturning and smashing their car. The clash broke out spontaneously after a member of the press gang, reportedly a martial arts coach, hit a man in the street.

Ukraine’s social media has become full of footage of the much-hated officers of the Territorial Recruitment and Social Support Centres (TCK) grabbing men from the street and brutally beating them before roughly manhandling them into vans in a process that has been dubbed “busification.”

Often wives, babushki and passers-by intervene in an attempt to rescue the victim – usually without success. The “recruit” is then taken to a processing centre where they are kept in prison-like accommodation before being given a brief military training and shipped off to serve on the front. According to reports, the life expectancy of many of these green, underprepared troops is counted in the weeks.

Russia is reportedly losing over 1,000 men a day, but Ukraine is also taking heavy losses. Ukraine’s manpower shortage is much more acute than Russia’s which continues to receive some 25,000 men a month, through its voluntary recruitment programme – not quite enough to replace losses at the front, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

While Ukraine’s losses remain a state secret, Russia is losing between three and eight men for each member of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) taken out of action, according to various sources. Based on those ratios then Ukraine is losing approximately 125–330 personnel daily.

Both the attacker/defender kill ratios and estimates of the number of Russians killed and wounded must be taken with extreme caution. The actual figures remain an extremely politically sensitive subject.

Iuliia Mendel, Zelenskiy’s former press secretary, who has become an outspoken critic of her former boss, has questioned all the estimates and is starkly critical of the compulsory conscription programme, as one of the few dissenting voices from Ukraine’s elite.

The authorities reacted harshly to the Lviv riot. The Ministry of Defence, law enforcement, and government officials insist that the burdens of war are shared equally—and that anyone protesting them is doing the "Kremlin’s work," reports Marta Havryshko, a Ukrainian analyst and government critic. A 23-year-old man that participated in the riot was arrested and faces up to eight years in prison.

“Branding every act of dissent as Russian subversion may be politically convenient, but it cannot conceal a deeper reality: public anger over coercive mobilization and the unequal distribution of wartime sacrifice is growing,” Havryshko said in a social media post. “An unsanctioned Maidan—one without Western approval—is unlikely to succeed. But that should not be mistaken for public consent. A government can suppress protest. It cannot indefinitely suppress the grievances that produce it.”

Social impact

The social impact of the war has been dire. According to a new report, Ukraine’s homeless population has surged to one million during the full-scale war. Nearly half of those now living rough on the street are internally displaced people (IDPs) whose homes and lives were destroyed by the invading Russian forces.

The brutal tactics of the TCK officers is fuelling resentment and coming under increased scrutiny. The number of physical attacks on offices is increasing and at least two officers have been killed in scuffles with their victims.

In the most recent case last week, a 34-year-old father from Kryvyi Rih, was snatched by the TCK officers in front of his 5-year-old daughter as he picked her up from school. The father was the sole caregiver after the mother abandoned the family, leaving the girl with no one to look after her, which under Ukrainian law excludes the father from conscription. The principal of the school took the daughter to the TCK offices to try and secure his release without success. It was only after the story went viral on social media, including a video of the little girl sobbing in the playground, that the authorities relented and released the father.

The majority of Ukrainians continue to support the government in the war against Russia, but support for fighting until the complete liberation of all occupied territory has declined. Ukrainians have become more pragmatic without becoming more willing to concede to Russia, according to Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS). Around 70% say they do not expect current attempts at peace talks to produce a lasting settlement. Only 17% think the war will end by the summer of 2026 and another 14% expect it to end before the end of the year. Only 31% expect the war to finish during 2026.

Despite growing war weariness, most Ukrainians still reject recognising Russian sovereignty over occupied territory, but more recently have conceded that some territory will be lost, which they would accept if a “just” ceasefire deal can be struck.

The war is also becoming unpopular in Russia that is eating into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings. The share of respondents in the VTsIOM poll saying they trust Putin declined to 75%, down from 76.7%, to its lowest level since the invasion four years ago. But Zelenskiy's approval rating has fallen even further to around 58% according to the more recent polls.