US President Donald Trump’s pledge to give Kyiv a license to make Patriot missiles could be a game changer – in Ukraine’s next war with Russia, but not in this one.

As IntelliNews reported, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy must be very happy with the results of the Ankara Nato summit on July 8 where he had his warmest ever meetings with the US leader. After abandoning the ceasefire talks, the Trump administration is back in the game after Trump made serious commitments to supporting Ukraine’s long-term efforts to counter the Russian invasion.

This is the first time the US has granted a licence to a foreign power to make one of its most sought after weapons systems and is a commitment to a long-term industrial partnership rather than just a short-term solution to Ukraine's immediate air defence missile shortage. Trump's surprise offer to allow Ukraine to manufacture Patriot interceptor missiles under licence marks one of the biggest shifts in US policy towards Kyiv since Russia's full-scale invasion.

However, military analysts caution that while the Patriot deal looks good on paper, putting it into practice is fraught with practical problems and it will be years before the first PAC-3 interceptor rolls off a Kyiv-based conveyor belt.

Speaking alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the Nato summit in Ankara, Trump announced that Washington would transfer the technology needed for Ukraine eventually to manufacture Patriot missiles itself.

"We're going to give a licence to you to make Patriots," Trump said. "That's pretty cool. This way you can't complain that we're not giving them enough. I said, 'Make them yourself.'"

Production system at breaking point

The Patriot system remains the West's only widely deployed interceptor capable of reliably defeating Russian ballistic missiles, making it one of the most sought-after weapons in the world. And as IntelliNews reported, in the drones vs missiles arms race, Russia is far ahead. Without interceptor ammo, Ukraine is essentially defenceless against the constant barrage of Russian missile attacks. Currently Russia is producing enough missiles of all types to fire a half dozen of them at Ukraine every day. In addition, it has added jet engines to things like the new Geran-5 drone that are now fast enough to evade Ukraine’s new interceptor drones.

Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute described ballistic missile defence as "one of Ukraine's greatest vulnerabilities" in a social media post

Demand for Patriot interceptor missiles was already higher than the US’ ability to produce them before the Iran war. Now it has exploded and the backlog of orders stretches into years.

Ukraine has consumed most of the interceptors donated to it by US and European allies defending its cities against Russian missile attacks. European countries are now scrapping the bottom of the barrel and stockpiles have fallen below the strategic reserve minimums set by military planners. Middle Eastern allies have also drawn heavily on Patriot inventories during the ongoing Gulf war.

Even the US has depleted its stockpile to the point where the US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth briefly stopped all military supplies to Ukraine last July after stockpiles fell below the strategic minimum threshold. In the first month of the Gulf war European allies looked on in disbelief after the US appropriated weapons they've already paid for, for use in Iran – especially the Patriot interceptors.

Bottlenecks

RTX (NYSE: RTX), which manufactures much of the Patriot system, and Lockheed Martin, which produces the PAC-3 interceptor, currently manufacture only a few hundred interceptor missiles each year. Although production is being expanded significantly, executives have warned that meaningful increases will not appear for at least a year due to shortages in specialised components rather than final assembly.

Following the opening phase of the Iran conflict and the unfolding disaster as Tehran forced the US and Israeli forces to burn through their stockpile of expensive interceptors by firing a swarm of cheap but plentiful drones as significant targets, Trump called an emergency meeting of top US arms manufacturers and demanded a rapid ramping up of production. The weapons-makers said annual output could eventually rise towards 1,000 interceptors a year - but not before the second half of this decade.

Starting from scratch, Ukraine faces all these same problems, but with bells on. That recasts Trump’s promise from a game changing commitment to little more than a gesture.

"The move is more political than practical—intended to demonstrate that the Trump administration is prepared to support Ukraine for the long haul," analysts at The Bell wrote. "It will not resolve the country's immediate air defence issues, as the production of these complex interceptors is constrained by the availability of components rather than the assembly process itself."

Years, not months

Military specialists caution that licensing production is only the first step in a very long process. The Patriot is among the most sophisticated missile systems in existence. Technology transfer must pass through strict US export controls while new factories require certification, security clearance, trained personnel and entirely new supply chains.

Kyrylo Shevchenko, the former governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), estimates that establishing meaningful production would require three to five years even after a licence has been granted.

Germany's own GEM-T Patriot production programme provides a guide. Announced in 2024, construction of new facilities is expected to take roughly two years before production gradually ramps up, reaching full output only around 2028.

Even then, Ukraine would still depend heavily on US-produced components.

"It really remains to be seen whether US manufacturers are really willing to share sensitive technology, including seekers, solid rocket motors and guidance software with their Ukrainian counterparts," Franz-Stefan Gady, a US and European military advisor, told the Financial Times. He questioned whether the programme was intended for the current conflict at all.

"Will it be in time for this war or is it aimed at post-war sustainment?"

Factories become targets

There are also military considerations. Any Patriot production facility established inside Ukraine would immediately become one of Russia's highest-priority targets.

"The question is how long will it take to set up production, how would Ukraine defend such facilities in wartime, will US companies who are currently reluctant actually follow through with tech transfer and will the supply chain expand to allow increased output?" Gady said.

For that reason, analysts believe much of any future production may ultimately be located elsewhere in Europe rather than inside Ukraine itself. This process is already under way as part of the so-called Danish model, but it comes with the risk of Russia targeting those facilities in Nato member countries, on the basis they are proactively participating in the war, rather than just passively supporting an ally.

Trump separately announced that Lockheed Martin would establish a new Patriot sustainment facility in Europe, highlighting Nato's growing emphasis on expanding the continent's missile production base, but without naming a country.

Russia ramps up missile production

Russian President Vladimir Putin put the entire economy on a war footing from the first day of the war and missile and drone production remains a top priority. Russia continues rapidly expanding production of both ballistic and cruise missiles while increasing output of long-range strike drones as well as constant technological development. Russia will produce an estimated 2,500 missiles of all types this year – twice as many as last year.

Although Ukraine has developed its own interceptor projects and recently completed successful testing of the FP-7 surface-to-air missiles – the so-called Flamingo cruise missile -- serial production has yet to begin.

Even the most optimistic estimates suggest it will be some time before Ukraine’s indigenous systems can replace Patriots that are now in such short supply, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) is rationing their use. For example, on the last day of the Ankara Nato summit Russia fired 29 missiles during another large attack on the Kyiv region and all of them got through. Zelenskiy recently told the FT that stocks of PAC-3 interceptors had become critically low and that replacement missiles sometimes arrived "literally the day before a massive attack".

A broader defence partnership

Alongside the Patriot announcement, Trump confirmed that the United States intends to purchase Ukrainian-made military drones, finally embracing Zelenskiy’s proposal for a mega drones-for-weapons deal, first advanced last year.

"We would buy their drones," Trump said. "And you know, if we made that deal, we'd have great protection."

Zelenskiy welcomed the move: "I'm very happy that our sides began to work on a drone deal, and it's a very good beginning."

Together, the two announcements suggest Washington increasingly views Ukraine not simply as a recipient of military aid but as a future partner in defence production – an important strategic shift. Yet it does little to alter the immediate military balance.

By the time Ukrainian-built Patriot interceptors begin rolling off production lines—assuming the programme proceeds as envisaged—it is highly likely the current war may have already ended. In that case the Patriot licence will become a huge advantage in Ukraine’s next war with Russia; not this one.