Turkey has no reason to engage in an open conflict with Israel, although the country’s leader Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking new enemies as he prepares to face the electorate, Turkey’s foreign minister Hakan Fidan said on July 9.

Israel will hold a general election on or before a deadline of October 27. A snap poll is a possibility.

In the wake of a snap election held in October 2022, Netanyahu returned to the post of PM after assembling a problematic coalition. He was struggling to hold on to the position amid corruption trials, but, in the eyes of critics, the October 2023 attack on Israelis committed by Hamas saved the day.

‘Tense’ rhetoric and the field of reality

“Last week, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and his longlasting minister Israel Katz, who currently serves as defence minister, launched their election campaign, with the launch including some targeting of [Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip] Erdogan on X,” Intellinews reported in April, adding: "In the coming months, the script demands that ‘tensions’ will rise. The Erdogan government is never stingy when it comes to laying on tensions for the media to headline during its election campaigns."

“In the field of reality, Turkey still allows Israel to meet half its crude oil demand via the Baku-Tbilis-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. Azerbaijani oil is piped to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, from where it is shipped to the Israelis,” this publication also noted.

Since that report, Erdogan, who also faces some pressure from the election calendar, and Netanyahu have entered into another series of wars of words, exchanging insults.

During an interview with US media held on July 9, top diplomat Fidan was asked: “The rhetoric between Turkey and Israel has been rather tense of late. In your mind, will this lead to an open conflict between Turkey and Israel?”

“Well, I think there is no reason for an open conflict,” he replied.

Still some “very sane” people

“Just [to say] since you are asking, because, you know, as I’ve been telling, whenever I hear this rhetoric coming from the Israeli politicians, [it is] especially as they get closer to upcoming elections. From some opposition figures, not all opposition figures, thank god, [as] there are still very sane and good people with wisdom and a strategic mind in Israel. Not all of them like Netanyahu and his people,” he added.

“But Netanyahu and some people as they get closer to the elections, they need an enemy. Because, after they wage war on Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, they need some other enemy to get somebody [to] pity them,” Fidan also said.

In a reply to a follow-up question – “And, you think they are trying to do that with Turkey?” – Fidan said: “Absolutely, absolutely.”

Rutte – “Let me not speculate”

On the same day that Fidan was interviewed, Nato’s general secretary, Mark Rutte, on the sidelines of the Ankara summit of Nato leaders, spoke to the same media. He was asked: “Tell me about Turkey and Israel. They’re trading barbs at the moment. In your mind, is a conflict ever going to happen between Turkey, Israel and Syria, for example? Does that trigger [Nato] Article 5 [in which all Nato members must defend the member under attack as if it is an attack on all of them]?”

Rutte replied: “Well, let me say this. President Erdogan is an extremely wise president. And, I completely concur also with what President Trump said about Erdogan that he is a nice leader, he is there for years in this role in his job.”

Rutte then faced a subsequent question: “You don’t think he will be baited?”

“He will avoid getting into a situation [that] gets out of hand. Because what he tries to do is exactly the role Turkey plays like hosting this fantastic summit now here, being such an important ally. They are also [people] to go to when it comes to finding ways to a deal because of the standing of President Erdogan, his foreign minister and his whole team,” Rutte replied.

“What if Mr Netanyahu makes a conflict unavoidable?” came another follow-up question.

Rutte answered: “Let me not speculate on that. Because, in the end, lets not forget what happened on October 7, 2023. This terrible attack by Hamas on Israel. So, it started not with Israel but obviously. Let me not speculate what could happen in the next step.”

“Today, Israel is a pariah,” Jewish Democrat Emanuel says in Tel Aviv

On July 8, Rahm Emanuel, a Jewish American who is a former Democratic Party congressman, former White House chief of staff under ex-president Barack Obama, a former Chicago mayor and a potential contender for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028, delivered a speech at Tel Aviv University.

“Today, Israel is a pariah. Israel has lost the United States. It’s lost Europe. And, you picked up Somaliland… You’ve lost your economic market. You’ve lost your political patron and you picked up Somaliland,” he later said during a televised interview on Channel 12, referring to Netanyahu’s foreign policy and his new alliance with Somaliland.

In the post-World War II era, Israel is the revisionist actor in the so-called MENA, or Middle East and North Africa, region. It began with almost no land and has reached its present-day size thanks to unending wars and advances.

Such a success would not have been possible without conflicts followed by reconciliation processes. The decision on the future of Netanyahu that is made at the upcoming election and by the Israeli system of power will also determine the next four years of the region.

As things stand, Iran is the only remaining threat to Israel in the region. The primary goal of the Israelis and their backers is to install a government in Tehran that would sign the so-called Abraham Accords, brokered by the first Trump administration, which would mean Iranian recognition for Israel.

The war against Iran continues in Gaza, Lebanon and on Iran’s own territory with the support of Donald Trump. A renewed mandate given to a Netanyahu-led government would signal a determination to solve the final problem.