The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) has begun openly supporting military juntas in West Africa, according to a recent report by the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

This move follows Moscow’s decision to subsume the Russian private military company Wagner Group into the structure of the army, in response to its decision to stage a mutiny against the MoD in June 2023. Wagner is Russia’s main military force in Africa and has made significant profits working on behalf of politicians on the continent, many of them unpopular, authoritarian leaders, with payment often in the form of mining concessions.

On September 16, a Russian military delegation led by Deputy Defence Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov and GRU General Andrei Averyanov visited Bamako, Mali. They met with defence ministers from Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali, along with junta leaders Assimi Goita and Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba. Notably, on that same day, these three countries signed a security pact to support each other in case of rebellion or external aggression.

According to ISW, Russian officials' overt engagement with West African military juntas represents a significant shift from their earlier covert actions through the Wagner Group. The Ministry of Defense's move to bring Wagner's activities in West Africa into the open has eliminated the option of plausible deniability. Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that Yevkurov and Averyanov are pivotal figures in this change of strategy, actively forging new alliances and partnerships with these junta governments.