Russian companies reported profits were down nearly 8% and losses have surged by a quarter in 3Q25 y/y. Financial stress across key sectors  in the economy is rising over the first nine months of 2025, according to Rosstat, Vedomosti reported on November 27.

The outlook for 2026 is for gradual improvement, but that will be tightly linked to the CBR’s ability to cut interest rates and will also depend on Russia’s external trade position and the price of oil.

Economic growth slowed sharpy in the third quarter and is now hovering just above zero, according to the latest office figures, reigniting talk of a possible recession at the start of 2026.

Net corporate profit fell by 7.7% year-on-year, while losses surged by nearly 25%, with a growing number of firms reporting payment delays and falling demand.

Investment growth slowed sharply, and business loan delinquencies reached their highest level in over two years, underscoring broader pressures on the corporate sector amid ongoing economic uncertainty.

Russian companies are under increasing pressure thanks partly to the sky high interest rates that are becoming a growing burden on profits. According to some reports companies are paying as much as four rubles out of five in debt service, leading to talk of a possible debt crisis, although that does not seem to be imminent.

Profits and Losses (January–September 2025)

Company earnings weakened across the board, with lower profits and a sharp rise in losses. The number of unprofitable firms also increased significantly.

• Net profit: RUB19.2tn — down 7.7% compared to the same period in 2024
• Number of profitable organisations: 44,400
  • Total profit: RUB25.7tn — down 1.2% year-on-year
• Number of loss-making organisations: 18,400 — up 11% year-on-year
  • Total losses: RUB6.52tn — up nearly 25%

Note: Data excludes small businesses, credit institutions, state and municipal bodies, and non-credit financial institutions.

Industry-specific Profitability

Several major industries saw a majority of companies operating at a loss, with profitability shrinking across most sectors.

Industries where the majority of organisations posted losses:

• Coal mining: 68.1% loss-making, 31.9% profitable
• Electricity, gas, and steam supply: 54.7% loss-making, 45.3% profitable
• Water supply and waste disposal: 52.9% loss-making, 47.1% profitable
• Logging: 45% loss-making
• Oil production: 48.1% loss-making
• Finance and insurance: 44% loss-making
• Research and development: 41.8% loss-making

Industries with increased share of profitable companies (January–September):

• Fisheries: +12 percentage points
• Air and space transport: +10.8 percentage points
• Public administration and military security: +7.4 percentage points
• Pharmaceutical and materials manufacturing: +4.9 percentage points
• Total exceptions: 10 industries

Non-payments and Demand Issues

Non-payment from counterparties became a widespread problem by Q3, while weak consumer and business demand added to corporate strain.

• By end of Q3 2025:
  • Nearly 40% of companies experienced non-payments from counterparties
  • Up from just over 25% in Q2
• 34% of companies reported a decline in demand for products
  • Up from 30% in Q2 (a rise of 4 percentage points)

Capital Investment

Investment growth slowed sharply in Q2, indicating mounting caution among businesses amid rising financial pressures.

• Fixed capital investment (Q2 2025):
  • Growth slowed to 1.5% year-on-year
  • Down from 8.7% growth in Q1
• Total investment (H1 2025):
  • RUB16.04tn
  • Up 4.3% year-on-year

Loan Delinquencies

Corporate loan delinquency rates hit their highest point in over two years, with nearly a quarter of borrowers in arrears.

• October 2025:
  • 714,000 legal entities and individual entrepreneurs had outstanding loans
  • 171,000 (approx.) were delinquent — nearly 24%
• Delinquency rate:
  • Highest in at least 2.5 years
  • Up 6 percentage points over past 12 months
  • Nearly doubled since start of 2023

AI and Retail doing well

Despite current challenges, sectors such as retail anticipate future gains, with generative AI expected to boost profitability significantly by the end of the decade. The projected profit from generative AI in retail by 2030 will be RUB160bn, according to Rosstat.