Russian consumer prices rose 0.2% month on month and 9.4% year on year in June, in line with preliminary weekly data, according to the latest RosStat report. (chart)
Inflation continued to moderate from 9.9% seen in May, even though a temporary spike has recently been observed in the beginning of July.
In June seasonally adjusted inflation slowed to 0.3% m/m (3.3% SAAR), down from 0.4% in May, while core inflation eased to 0.3% m/m seasonally adjusted (3.1% SAAR).
The data suggest a softer services component and reinforce market expectations of a larger key rate cut at the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) July 25 policy key rate meeting.
Analysts at Renaissance Capital believe a 100bp cut is now more likely, projecting the policy rate to decline to 12% by mid-2026.
As followed closely by bne IntelliNews, the board of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) resolved to cut the key interest policy rate from 21% by 100 basis points to 20% at the policy meeting of June 6, the CBR said in a press release. (chart)
The key interest rate has stayed at a record-high 21% since October 2024.