Moldova’s pro-Russian Patriotic Bloc would secure a narrow lead over the ruling pro-EU Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) if parliamentary elections were held now, according to a poll conducted by iData and published by Cotidianul on September 9. Moldova will hold parliamentary elections on September 28.

The survey indicated that the Patriotic Bloc, formed by former president Igor Dodon's Socialists, Vladimir Voronin's Communists and Hearth of Moldova led by former governor of Gagauzia Irina Vlah, would win 42 seats in the 101-member legislature, compared with 40 for PAS.

Renato Usatîi’s Our Party would obtain 10 seats, while the Alternativa Bloc led by Ion Ceban would secure nine mandates. Whilke Usatii's future alliances are hard to predict, Alternativa seems a close partner of the Patriotic Bloc.

Other political formations would not surpass the electoral threshold.

In voting intentions among determined voters, iData recorded 36% support for the Patriotic Bloc and 34.7% for PAS. Our Party polled at 8.4%, followed by the Alternativa Bloc at 7.9%.

The poll excluded votes from Moldova’s diaspora, which represents nearly one-sixth of the electorate, and from residents on the left bank of the Nistru River, who account for less than one-tenth of voters. Both groups are traditionally considered decisive in shaping electoral outcomes.

Researchers also highlighted a significant share of undecided voters, estimated at 30%, leaving the final balance of power dependent on voter mobilisation as well as ballots cast abroad and in Transnistria.

Without the diaspora's votes and the votes in Transnistria, the results suggest a fragile parliamentary configuration, with PAS and the Patriotic Bloc in close competition. The smaller blocs led by Usatîi and Ceban could become pivotal in negotiations to form a governing majority.