The four-party coalition of Prime Minister Donald Tusk appears to have been shaken to its foundations, as the fallout of June 1's presidential election has begun to spread on the following day.

The coalition had stood on the verge of being able to speed up its reformist agenda, yet is now facing collapse after Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian, pulled just ahead of Mayor of Warsaw Rafał Trzaskowski to become Poland’s next president.

A Trzaskowski presidency was key in Tusk’s strategy to deliver on the promises he had made in 2023 that helped him and his coalition partners forge a majority that ousted the radical right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party from power after eight years in control.

Nawrocki won the election, however, beating Trzaskowski 50.89% to 49.11%, official results showed early on June 2, sending shock waves across the ruling camp.

The president-elect is expected to throw sand in the government’s gears from day one in office, looking not just to foil any reforms that might have left the parliament but to build an ever greater impression that Tusk and his coalition partners are not up for the job.

Some in the Tusk coalition appeared to have realised that dithering over crucial reforms might have cost Trzaskowski the presidency and have vowed – albeit apparently belatedly – that a sharp pro-reformist turn could be the government’s last chance to avoid giving power up back to PiS in 2027.

“The election results clearly show that fear alone is not enough to win against PiS. A progressive economic and social agenda is needed to fulfil the dreams of Poles. Progressive in terms of taxes and contributions. Progressive in terms of values and vision,” Ryszard Petru, a coalition MP, said on X.

“I know these are bitter words, but it’s better to say them now than to regret it in two years: more of the same brings more of the same. And that’s exactly what we saw in the election results. It’s time to finally commit to real change … We have two years to make it happen,” EU Funds and Regional Policy Minister Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz wrote on Facebook.

The parliament Speaker Szymon Hołownia likened the election result to a “red card” issued by voters to the government.

It remained unclear what Tusk’s plans are in the wake of Trzaskowski’s defeat, which has all but killed the government’s agency in the remaining two years before the next general election.

In a televised address in the evening of June 2, Tusk said he would work with President Nawrocki “where necessary and possible.” 

“If not, there’s no reason to wait. We will get to work, no matter the circumstances, because that’s why we were elected. We will submit complete legislation [to the president], but if necessary, we will govern and make decisions even with a president trying to block good changes,” Tusk said.

The PM also said he would ask the parliament for a confidence vote “soon.” There is a parliament session planned for June 3-4.

Meanwhile, Jarosław Kaczyński, the leader of PiS, called for a “caretaker government” to take over from Tusk’s.

“In 2027, voters will decide who should govern, and we will do everything to ensure that it is PiS,” Kaczyński said.

“But right now, we are proposing a non-partisan, technical government … to calm tensions, improve the situation in all key areas of our social life, as well as our international standing and, in particular, military strength. The most pressing issue that must be addressed immediately is the public finance crisis,” Kaczyński said, referring to concerns voiced by some economists about government deficit.